Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Jigawa State: buildings, spend and payback

2,533,885 buildings in Jigawa State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦549bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 6% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

2,533,885

Usable roof area

78.6 km²

17.4 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦549bn/yr

470 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

9.4 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Jigawa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦549bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦498bn

Lifetime cash saved₦26.1tn

NPV₦3.9tn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.4 yr

Unlocked energy383 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity2.17 GWp

Capex₦2.34tn

Year-one energy value₦2.31tn

Lifetime energy value₦108tn

NPV₦18.6tn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Jigawa State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 2.17 GWp
Capital cost: ₦2.34tn
Year 1 savings: ₦2.31tn/yr
NPV: ₦18.6tn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Jigawa State pays back quickly

Of the 2,500,387 buildings in Jigawa State with a modelled payback, 31.0% pay back inside five years and 6.4% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

31.0%

Payback under 3 years

6.4%

IRR above 20%

33.9%

Under 3 years · 6%3 – 5 years · 25%5 – 7 years · 11%7 – 10 years · 11%Over 10 years · 46%

Coverage: 99% of buildings in Jigawa State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Jigawa State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Jigawa State consume 1.14 TWh/yr but want 1.53 TWh/yr. The 25% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 75%Suppressed · 25%

Energy wanted

1.53 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

1.14 TWh/yr

Unmet demand

383 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Jigawa State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 2,500,387 buildings with a modelled result out of 2,533,885 in Jigawa State. 1,055,139 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years159,244 (6%)

Under 5 years773,871 (31%)

Under 7 years1,057,656 (42%)

Under 10 years1,340,231 (54%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%1,251,328 (49%)

Above 15%1,055,139 (42%)

Above 20%860,187 (34%)

Above 25%627,452 (25%)

Electricity billing bands in Jigawa State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Jigawa State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	741,650	27,281	₦88.9bn	₦79.6bn	7%	14.4 yr
C	650,042	30,954	₦105bn	₦90.7bn	9%	9.9 yr
E	632,329	18,422	₦73.5bn	₦64.8bn	7%	14.4 yr
A	313,134	46,440	₦157bn	₦146bn	25%	4.1 yr
B	196,730	33,514	₦125bn	₦117bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	2,512,908	142,745	₦307bn	₦292bn	9%	9.4 yr
Anchor	6,635	4,730	₦220bn	₦184bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	6,072	2,940	₦845m	₦845m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	4,765	3,329	₦19.2bn	₦18.5bn	53%	1.9 yr
Worship	1,898	1,552	₦964m	₦930m	61%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	1,129	992	₦426m	₦426m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	256	144	₦597m	₦570m	45%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	147	122	₦210m	₦210m	65%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	67	57	₦62.1m	₦62m	67%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	8	0	₦3.82m	₦3.82m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	1,463,605	54,792	₦11bn	₦10.7bn	5%	16.1 yr
30 50m2	513,232	35,393	₦13.5bn	₦13.4bn	15%	7.1 yr
50 100m2	344,659	31,110	₦32.1bn	₦31.4bn	29%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	155,106	22,870	₦90bn	₦83.2bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	51,173	10,354	₦159bn	₦152bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	6,110	2,092	₦243bn	₦207bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	883,415	39,927	₦168bn	₦150bn	9%	9.9 yr
Unclassified	691,694	18,437	₦82.4bn	₦74.9bn	5%	16.6 yr
Rural	516,799	30,136	₦69.5bn	₦60.7bn	11%	8.9 yr
Dense Urban	232,459	35,550	₦107bn	₦96.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban Centre	209,518	32,561	₦121bn	₦116bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	1,650,348	58,160	₦12.2bn	₦12.2bn	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Informal	342,078	51,083	₦105bn	₦105bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	315,596	19,488	₦28.3bn	₦27.4bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	175,937	13,239	₦159bn	₦147bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	28,860	729	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	21%	5.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	7,035	3,789	₦1.16bn	₦1.16bn	47%	2.4 yr
Institutional	4,649	3,230	₦208bn	₦173bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	2,460	1,921	₦4.33bn	₦4.33bn	85%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,348	1,011	₦9.51bn	₦9.03bn	55%	1.9 yr
School	1,054	781	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	85%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	852	629	₦11.5bn	₦10.7bn	57%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	754	638	₦143m	₦143m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	2,533,598	156,392	₦535bn	₦485bn
Industrial	214	187	₦13.4bn	₦12.8bn
Retail	40	32	₦36.6m	₦36.6m
Farmland	28	0	₦741k	₦741k
Farmyard	5	0	₦457k	₦457k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	2,525,211	150,511	₦316bn	₦302bn	9%	9.4 yr
Enterprise	6,694	4,765	₦220bn	₦184bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	1,980	1,335	₦12.6bn	₦11.8bn	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	1,566,499	50,292	₦10.4bn	₦10.4bn
2.0	410,006	43,036	₦61.9bn	₦57.1bn
1.0	282,447	23,062	₦14.6bn	₦14.3bn
3.0	195,060	29,273	₦260bn	₦241bn
4.0	79,526	10,748	₦194bn	₦169bn
5.0	288	163	₦5.37bn	₦4.74bn
6.0	59	37	₦1.84bn	₦1.81bn