Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Jahun, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Jahun has 148,976 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1 GWp of roof capacity. 10% run a generator, and together they spend ₦38.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

148,976

Usable roof area

4.51 km²

1 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦38.4bn/yr

32.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.1 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Jahun

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦38.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦33.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.73tn

NPV₦264bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback9.1 yr

Unlocked energy22.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity143 MWp

Capex₦154bn

Year-one energy value₦164bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.71tn

NPV₦1.34tn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Jahun's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 143 MWp
Capital cost: ₦154bn
Year 1 savings: ₦164bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.34tn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Jahun pays back quickly

Of the 146,201 buildings in Jahun with a modelled payback, 34.1% pay back inside five years and 10.4% inside three.

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How much of Jahun's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Jahun consume 73.4 GWh/yr but want 95.5 GWh/yr. The 23% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Jahun

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Jahun actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 146,201 buildings with a modelled result out of 148,976 in Jahun. 62,521 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,258 (10%)

Under 5 years49,882 (34%)

Under 7 years62,605 (43%)

Under 10 years80,687 (55%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%75,016 (50%)

Above 15%62,521 (42%)

Above 20%54,785 (37%)

Above 25%41,175 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

60.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

15.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

22.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

455k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Jahun.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Jahun

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	51,479	5,694	₦10.7bn	₦9.12bn	9%	13.1 yr
E	42,799	2,181	₦7.44bn	₦6.33bn	9%	13.4 yr
C	39,068	4,216	₦10.5bn	₦9.01bn	11%	8.4 yr
A	11,501	1,880	₦5.7bn	₦5.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	4,129	1,259	₦4.05bn	₦3.72bn	29%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	147,954	14,317	₦24.1bn	₦22.5bn	11%	9.1 yr
Anchor	318	242	₦12.7bn	₦9.36bn	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	182	159	₦1.27bn	₦1.19bn	61%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	170	170	₦134m	₦134m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	163	162	₦99.4m	₦99.4m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	146	139	₦94.9m	₦94.9m	63%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	25	25	₦28.8m	₦28.7m	65%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	9	9	₦9.45m	₦9.37m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	9	7	₦14.3m	₦14.3m	59%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	87,729	6,341	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn	7%	15.4 yr
30 50m2	28,644	3,579	₦1.23bn	₦1.19bn	13%	7.6 yr
50 100m2	18,917	2,864	₦2.58bn	₦2.57bn	29%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	9,684	1,553	₦5.99bn	₦5.63bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	3,601	730	₦12.3bn	₦11.1bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	401	163	₦15.3bn	₦11.9bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	56,794	6,960	₦14.9bn	₦13.6bn	11%	8.6 yr
Unclassified	42,087	1,109	₦3.7bn	₦3.38bn	5%	16.1 yr
Rural	27,705	3,157	₦6.34bn	₦4.99bn	9%	9.6 yr
Dense Urban	22,390	4,004	₦13.5bn	₦11.5bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	99,279	6,611	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Informal	20,334	4,539	₦7.57bn	₦7.54bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	16,736	2,057	₦2.15bn	₦2.14bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	11,605	1,110	₦13.3bn	₦11.8bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	313	312	₦202m	₦202m	61%	1.6 yr
Institutional	232	175	₦12.1bn	₦8.82bn	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	98	75	₦196m	₦196m	93%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	86	86	₦970m	₦891m	61%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	74	73	₦25m	₦25m	61%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	45	39	₦599m	₦545m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	42	39	₦21.8m	₦21.8m	67%	1.6 yr
School	36	28	₦58.6m	₦58.6m	93%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	148,976	15,230	₦38.4bn	₦33.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	148,549	14,881	₦24.8bn	₦23.2bn	11%	9.1 yr
Enterprise	319	241	₦12.7bn	₦9.36bn	65%	1.6 yr
SME High	108	108	₦1bn	₦924m	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	91,823	5,804	₦942m	₦942m
2.0	24,288	4,183	₦5.55bn	₦5.24bn
1.0	20,706	2,618	₦1.43bn	₦1.43bn
3.0	9,350	2,060	₦16.2bn	₦14.5bn
4.0	2,806	562	₦14.1bn	₦11.2bn
5.0	3	3	₦257m	₦189m