Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Babura, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Babura has 105,268 buildings with a viable rooftop and 519 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.22bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

105,268

Usable roof area

2.37 km²

519 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.22bn/yr

5.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.4 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Babura

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.22bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦6.87bn

Lifetime cash saved₦384bn

NPV₦52.6bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback15.4 yr

Unlocked energy7.82 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity61.5 MWp

Capex₦67.6bn

Year-one energy value₦75.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.55tn

NPV₦616bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Babura's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 61.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦67.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦75.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦616bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Babura pays back quickly

Of the 104,576 buildings in Babura with a modelled payback, 22.9% pay back inside five years and 1.8% inside three.

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How much of Babura's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Babura consume 15.8 GWh/yr but want 23.6 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Babura

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Babura actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 104,576 buildings with a modelled result out of 105,268 in Babura. 30,706 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,923 (2%)

Under 5 years23,913 (23%)

Under 7 years30,779 (29%)

Under 10 years37,891 (36%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%35,115 (33%)

Above 15%30,706 (29%)

Above 20%26,066 (25%)

Above 25%19,780 (19%)

CO₂ avoided

14.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.69 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.82 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

329k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Babura.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Babura

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	32,345	163	₦1.08bn	₦939m	5%	16.9 yr
C	27,280	228	₦1.07bn	₦914m	5%	16.1 yr
E	26,952	84	₦658m	₦658m	5%	17.1 yr
A	10,275	611	₦2.38bn	₦2.33bn	25%	4.1 yr
B	8,416	782	₦2.03bn	₦2.03bn	23%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	104,635	1,435	₦5.24bn	₦4.94bn	7%	15.6 yr
Anchor	243	171	₦1.61bn	₦1.56bn	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	158	113	₦336m	₦336m	57%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	146	101	₦18.8m	₦18.8m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship	58	33	₦5.71m	₦5.71m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	13	7	₦6.47m	₦6.47m	43%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	7	5	₦3.4m	₦3.4m	67%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	6	1	₦659k	₦659k	35%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	2	2	₦600k	₦600k	55%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	69,732	576	₦248m	₦247m	5%	17.9 yr
30 50m2	20,238	386	₦410m	₦410m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	11,210	398	₦987m	₦987m	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	3,438	353	₦1.92bn	₦1.62bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	629	148	₦2.68bn	₦2.63bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	21	7	₦974m	₦974m	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	59,710	937	₦3.42bn	₦3.37bn	5%	16.1 yr
Unclassified	24,834	200	₦2.39bn	₦2.09bn	5%	17.6 yr
Dense Urban	13,462	672	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	7,262	59	₦267m	₦267m	7%	14.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	78,254	539	₦246m	₦246m	5%	17.4 yr
Residential Small	13,416	593	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	6,370	300	₦3.56bn	₦3.26bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	4,497	3	₦104m	₦104m	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	2,098	0	₦21.6m	₦21.6m	19%	5.6 yr
Institutional	149	105	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	126	92	₦15.4m	₦15.4m	67%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	100	72	₦122m	₦122m	87%	1.1 yr
School	81	56	₦45.7m	₦45.7m	87%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	42	24	₦3.3m	₦3.3m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial	34	23	₦113m	₦113m	43%	2.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	32	22	₦316m	₦316m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	105,268	1,868	₦7.22bn	₦6.87bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	104,991	1,674	₦5.49bn	₦5.19bn	7%	15.4 yr
Enterprise	250	174	₦1.61bn	₦1.57bn	67%	1.6 yr
SME High	27	20	₦114m	₦114m	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	77,490	608	₦244m	₦244m
1.0	10,340	261	₦659m	₦658m
2.0	9,311	540	₦1.45bn	₦1.3bn
3.0	5,464	454	₦4.7bn	₦4.51bn
4.0	2,662	5	₦166m	₦166m
5.0	1	0	₦302k	₦302k