Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Dutse, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Dutse has 161,537 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.17 GWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦34.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

161,537

Usable roof area

5.29 km²

1.17 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦34.4bn/yr

30.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.9 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Dutse

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦34.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦33.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.82tn

NPV₦264bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.9 yr

Unlocked energy28 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity144 MWp

Capex₦153bn

Year-one energy value₦143bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.76tn

NPV₦1.15tn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Dutse's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 144 MWp
Capital cost: ₦153bn
Year 1 savings: ₦143bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.15tn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Dutse pays back quickly

Of the 160,808 buildings in Dutse with a modelled payback, 31.7% pay back inside five years and 4.6% inside three.

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How much of Dutse's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Dutse consume 73.1 GWh/yr but want 101 GWh/yr. The 28% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Dutse

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Dutse actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 160,808 buildings with a modelled result out of 161,537 in Dutse. 80,385 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,468 (5%)

Under 5 years50,973 (32%)

Under 7 years80,728 (50%)

Under 10 years104,597 (65%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%98,423 (61%)

Above 15%80,385 (50%)

Above 20%58,402 (36%)

Above 25%41,854 (26%)

CO₂ avoided

61.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

13.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

28 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

452k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Dutse.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Dutse

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	45,229	4,995	₦20.1bn	₦19.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	33,683	302	₦4.49bn	₦4.24bn	11%	9.1 yr
D	31,482	318	₦957m	₦957m	7%	14.6 yr
B	27,501	801	₦3.81bn	₦3.8bn	19%	5.9 yr
E	23,642	274	₦5.06bn	₦5.02bn	7%	14.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	158,871	5,137	₦18.4bn	₦17.6bn	15%	7.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,130	615	₦185m	₦185m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial General	885	508	₦4.28bn	₦4.12bn	45%	2.4 yr
Anchor	387	257	₦11.4bn	₦11.2bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	139	100	₦38m	₦38m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	57	23	₦61.3m	₦61.3m	41%	2.6 yr
Productive Use	38	36	₦11.7m	₦11.7m	73%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	20	10	₦32.5m	₦32.5m	39%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	5	4	₦3.98m	₦3.98m	75%	1.4 yr
Mall Retail	5	0	₦3.56m	₦3.56m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	84,411	1,908	₦591m	₦585m	7%	14.4 yr
30 50m2	42,901	1,204	₦1.02bn	₦1.02bn	17%	5.9 yr
50 100m2	22,420	1,166	₦2.23bn	₦2.21bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	9,423	1,670	₦7.21bn	₦6.67bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,248	683	₦10.5bn	₦10.2bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	134	59	₦12.9bn	₦12.6bn	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	61,908	1,071	₦5.9bn	₦5.64bn	11%	8.6 yr
Urban Centre	43,439	4,895	₦18.5bn	₦18.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	25,111	265	₦8.98bn	₦8.45bn	5%	16.1 yr
Rural	19,063	99	₦559m	₦559m	9%	9.6 yr
Dense Urban	12,016	360	₦523m	₦523m	17%	6.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	94,155	1,292	₦486m	₦486m	9%	13.6 yr
Residential Small	31,054	1,655	₦2.77bn	₦2.75bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	14,412	1,475	₦13.8bn	₦13bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	12,274	715	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	6,965	0	₦55m	₦55m	15%	6.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,160	644	₦193m	₦193m	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	482	304	₦3.34bn	₦3.19bn	49%	2.1 yr
Institutional	272	183	₦9.16bn	₦9.14bn	49%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	143	103	₦617m	₦617m	83%	1.1 yr
School	108	73	₦67.2m	₦67.2m	71%	1.4 yr
Unknown	87	31	₦286m	₦286m	33%	3.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	60	32	₦1.81bn	₦1.67bn	41%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	161,497	6,658	₦34.4bn	₦33.2bn
Retail	40	32	₦36.6m	₦36.6m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	160,590	6,103	₦19.5bn	₦18.6bn	15%	7.1 yr
SME High	546	319	₦3.54bn	₦3.39bn	49%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	401	268	₦11.4bn	₦11.3bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	94,184	1,320	₦490m	₦490m
2.0	25,738	1,351	₦2.91bn	₦2.6bn
3.0	17,553	2,382	₦23.6bn	₦23bn
1.0	14,448	887	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn
4.0	9,472	680	₦4.27bn	₦4.17bn
5.0	120	57	₦1.54bn	₦1.39bn
6.0	22	13	₦599m	₦599m