Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Maigatari, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Maigatari has 90,971 buildings with a viable rooftop and 510 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

90,971

Usable roof area

2.32 km²

510 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.2bn/yr

9.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.1 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Maigatari

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦10.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦573bn

NPV₦85.2bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.1 yr

Unlocked energy9.14 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity58.4 MWp

Capex₦63.8bn

Year-one energy value₦69bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.25tn

NPV₦564bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Maigatari's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 58.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦63.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦69bn/yr
NPV: ₦564bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Maigatari pays back quickly

Of the 89,995 buildings in Maigatari with a modelled payback, 23.6% pay back inside five years and 3.3% inside three.

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How much of Maigatari's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Maigatari consume 21.5 GWh/yr but want 30.7 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Maigatari

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Maigatari actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 89,995 buildings with a modelled result out of 90,971 in Maigatari. 27,332 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,982 (3%)

Under 5 years21,245 (24%)

Under 7 years27,407 (30%)

Under 10 years37,597 (42%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%33,888 (37%)

Above 15%27,332 (30%)

Above 20%23,270 (26%)

Above 25%17,460 (19%)

CO₂ avoided

20.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.05 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.14 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

210k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Maigatari.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Maigatari

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	30,306	506	₦2.2bn	₦2.09bn	7%	14.9 yr
E	25,823	709	₦1.91bn	₦1.47bn	7%	15.4 yr
C	22,294	676	₦4.49bn	₦3.57bn	7%	14.9 yr
A	8,449	4	₦599m	₦596m	23%	4.9 yr
B	4,099	1,047	₦3.03bn	₦3.02bn	31%	3.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	90,650	2,732	₦10.4bn	₦8.98bn	7%	14.1 yr
Anchor	171	138	₦1.65bn	₦1.56bn	89%	1.1 yr
Commercial General	93	67	₦190m	₦190m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	52	4	₦1.39m	₦1.39m	33%	3.4 yr
Worship	3	1	₦271k	₦271k	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	2	0	₦269k	₦269k	39%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	57,828	1,137	₦249m	₦249m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	16,062	643	₦340m	₦340m	11%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	11,312	550	₦1.5bn	₦1.13bn	29%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	4,719	424	₦3.77bn	₦3.08bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	993	180	₦5.08bn	₦4.65bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	57	8	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	38,896	673	₦2.17bn	₦1.76bn	5%	16.9 yr
Rural	28,632	682	₦2.11bn	₦1.88bn	9%	13.4 yr
Urban Centre	12,632	1,144	₦4.46bn	₦4.45bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	10,811	443	₦3.47bn	₦2.65bn	9%	13.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	64,202	1,365	₦304m	₦304m	5%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	11,812	297	₦1.28bn	₦914m	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	8,056	833	₦3.08bn	₦3.08bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	6,580	237	₦5.72bn	₦4.69bn	27%	3.9 yr
Educational Facility	88	78	₦140m	₦140m	95%	1.1 yr
Institutional	85	61	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn	63%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	52	4	₦1.39m	₦1.39m	33%	3.4 yr
School	36	32	₦36.7m	₦36.7m	91%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	22	20	₦454m	₦399m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	12	1	₦13.2m	₦13.2m	37%	2.9 yr
Unknown	7	3	₦13.8m	₦13.8m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial	6	6	₦22.9m	₦22.9m	77%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	90,971	2,942	₦12.2bn	₦10.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	90,780	2,797	₦10.5bn	₦9.14bn	7%	14.1 yr
Enterprise	173	138	₦1.65bn	₦1.56bn	89%	1.1 yr
SME High	18	7	₦36.2m	₦36.2m	39%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	62,194	1,364	₦286m	₦286m
2.0	12,371	721	₦3.26bn	₦2.43bn
1.0	9,774	249	₦607m	₦607m
3.0	4,654	436	₦6.27bn	₦5.63bn
4.0	1,969	171	₦1.78bn	₦1.77bn
5.0	8	1	₦11.8m	₦11.8m
6.0	1	0	₦1.17m	₦1.17m