Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Kafin Hausa, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Kafin Hausa has 135,220 buildings with a viable rooftop and 854 MWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦19.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

135,220

Usable roof area

3.85 km²

854 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦19.5bn/yr

15.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kafin Hausa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦19.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦18bn

Lifetime cash saved₦970bn

NPV₦142bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback13.9 yr

Unlocked energy17.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity115 MWp

Capex₦125bn

Year-one energy value₦136bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.4tn

NPV₦1.11tn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kafin Hausa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 115 MWp
Capital cost: ₦125bn
Year 1 savings: ₦136bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.11tn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kafin Hausa pays back quickly

Of the 131,494 buildings in Kafin Hausa with a modelled payback, 27.5% pay back inside five years and 3.7% inside three.

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How much of Kafin Hausa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kafin Hausa consume 41.4 GWh/yr but want 58.5 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kafin Hausa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kafin Hausa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 131,494 buildings with a modelled result out of 135,220 in Kafin Hausa. 45,368 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,801 (4%)

Under 5 years36,138 (27%)

Under 7 years45,457 (35%)

Under 10 years58,607 (45%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%54,043 (40%)

Above 15%45,368 (34%)

Above 20%38,953 (29%)

Above 25%31,223 (23%)

CO₂ avoided

35.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7.36 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

470k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kafin Hausa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Kafin Hausa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	45,481	299	₦2.58bn	₦2.45bn	7%	15.4 yr
C	40,401	1,140	₦6.29bn	₦5.65bn	9%	13.4 yr
E	36,825	529	₦4.97bn	₦4.59bn	7%	14.9 yr
A	6,396	979	₦2.98bn	₦2.67bn	31%	3.6 yr
B	6,117	1,859	₦2.65bn	₦2.65bn	31%	3.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	134,185	3,957	₦12.5bn	₦11.7bn	7%	13.9 yr
Worship	370	294	₦114m	₦114m	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	346	284	₦6.38bn	₦5.72bn	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	177	143	₦407m	₦407m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	122	117	₦21.2m	₦21.2m	71%	1.4 yr
Productive Use	12	5	₦1.21m	₦1.21m	31%	3.1 yr
Industrial	5	4	₦14.9m	₦14.9m	51%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	3	2	₦2.61m	₦2.61m	75%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	82,405	1,424	₦341m	₦341m	5%	17.1 yr
30 50m2	22,878	922	₦443m	₦443m	11%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	18,768	1,208	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	8,434	876	₦4.8bn	₦4.16bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,506	302	₦5.22bn	₦5.14bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	229	74	₦7.19bn	₦6.45bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	79,603	1,586	₦9.27bn	₦8.37bn	7%	13.9 yr
Unclassified	28,105	180	₦2.52bn	₦2.42bn	3%	18.1 yr
Rural	10,320	106	₦445m	₦363m	7%	14.4 yr
Urban Centre	9,212	1,694	₦4.87bn	₦4.7bn	31%	3.6 yr
Dense Urban	7,980	1,240	₦2.37bn	₦2.16bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	91,241	1,295	₦375m	₦375m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	19,355	559	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential	12,144	326	₦7.02bn	₦6.21bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	11,445	1,777	₦3.91bn	₦3.91bn	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	324	263	₦5.99bn	₦5.33bn	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	181	149	₦247m	₦247m	87%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	147	119	₦23.6m	₦23.6m	67%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	131	120	₦21.8m	₦21.8m	71%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	88	67	₦14.6m	₦14.6m	67%	1.6 yr
School	64	53	₦38.5m	₦38.5m	89%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	42	31	₦409m	₦409m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	20	20	₦46.4m	₦46.4m	75%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	135,220	4,806	₦19.5bn	₦18bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	134,851	4,499	₦13bn	₦12.2bn	7%	13.9 yr
Enterprise	347	285	₦6.39bn	₦5.73bn	75%	1.4 yr
SME High	22	22	₦47.5m	₦47.5m	75%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	88,964	1,317	₦346m	₦346m
2.0	20,137	1,502	₦3.96bn	₦3.36bn
1.0	16,189	617	₦776m	₦775m
3.0	8,160	1,021	₦10.8bn	₦10.4bn
4.0	1,769	349	₦3.55bn	₦3.14bn
6.0	1	0	₦7.44m	₦7.44m