Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Birnin Kudu, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Birnin Kudu has 201,330 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1 GWp of roof capacity. 1% run a generator, and together they spend ₦13.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

201,330

Usable roof area

4.58 km²

1 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦13.3bn/yr

11 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.1 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Birnin Kudu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦13.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦13.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦737bn

NPV₦101bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.1 yr

Unlocked energy13.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity106 MWp

Capex₦115bn

Year-one energy value₦122bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.77tn

NPV₦995bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Birnin Kudu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 106 MWp
Capital cost: ₦115bn
Year 1 savings: ₦122bn/yr
NPV: ₦995bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Birnin Kudu pays back quickly

Of the 200,432 buildings in Birnin Kudu with a modelled payback, 22.4% pay back inside five years and 2.2% inside three.

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How much of Birnin Kudu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Birnin Kudu consume 30.1 GWh/yr but want 43.7 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Birnin Kudu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Birnin Kudu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 200,432 buildings with a modelled result out of 201,330 in Birnin Kudu. 67,220 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,339 (2%)

Under 5 years44,831 (22%)

Under 7 years67,475 (34%)

Under 10 years98,602 (49%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%88,293 (44%)

Above 15%67,220 (33%)

Above 20%50,563 (25%)

Above 25%36,288 (18%)

CO₂ avoided

26.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.99 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

448k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Birnin Kudu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Birnin Kudu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	59,453	502	₦1.7bn	₦1.7bn	9%	9.9 yr
D	51,834	569	₦818m	₦818m	7%	14.9 yr
E	49,810	330	₦950m	₦934m	7%	14.9 yr
A	21,136	843	₦3.39bn	₦3.38bn	21%	5.1 yr
B	19,097	710	₦6.42bn	₦6.41bn	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	197,128	1,546	₦8bn	₦7.97bn	9%	13.1 yr
Commercial Retail	2,605	273	₦101m	₦101m	35%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	749	400	₦668m	₦668m	47%	2.4 yr
Anchor	350	274	₦4.34bn	₦4.34bn	71%	1.4 yr
Productive Use	250	242	₦48m	₦48m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship	201	181	₦44.8m	₦44.8m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	19	13	₦66.5m	₦66.5m	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	17	16	₦8.52m	₦8.52m	69%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	11	9	₦3.57m	₦3.57m	69%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	121,467	924	₦446m	₦446m	5%	15.9 yr
30 50m2	51,022	650	₦810m	₦810m	11%	8.4 yr
50 100m2	23,250	547	₦1.53bn	₦1.53bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	4,828	581	₦2.32bn	₦2.29bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	718	222	₦3.31bn	₦3.31bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	45	30	₦4.86bn	₦4.86bn	71%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	91,150	846	₦2.53bn	₦2.5bn	9%	13.1 yr
Unclassified	39,335	248	₦3.58bn	₦3.58bn	5%	17.1 yr
Rural	37,927	314	₦594m	₦594m	9%	13.4 yr
Urban Centre	21,385	1,298	₦6.21bn	₦6.21bn	21%	5.1 yr
Dense Urban	11,533	248	₦362m	₦362m	19%	5.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	135,325	468	₦391m	₦391m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	29,575	542	₦1.95bn	₦1.94bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	14,544	443	₦5.27bn	₦5.24bn	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Formal	11,564	0	₦116m	₦116m	21%	5.4 yr
Residential Informal	6,113	93	₦276m	₦276m	21%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,826	486	₦137m	₦137m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	258	78	₦185m	₦185m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	239	190	₦4.07bn	₦4.07bn	57%	1.9 yr
Market	201	197	₦35.4m	₦35.4m	67%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	128	98	₦188m	₦188m	83%	1.4 yr
School	122	93	₦45m	₦45m	83%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	106	6	₦171m	₦171m	37%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	201,330	2,954	₦13.3bn	₦13.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	200,611	2,600	₦8.52bn	₦8.5bn	9%	13.1 yr
SME High	366	79	₦359m	₦359m	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	353	275	₦4.39bn	₦4.39bn	73%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	135,528	632	₦411m	₦411m
2.0	27,230	563	₦1.6bn	₦1.58bn
1.0	14,559	768	₦783m	₦782m
3.0	13,122	950	₦9.81bn	₦9.8bn
4.0	10,846	38	₦427m	₦427m
5.0	41	3	₦240m	₦240m
6.0	4	0	₦7.37m	₦7.37m