Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Gwaram, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Gwaram has 198,238 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.57 GWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦63.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

198,238

Usable roof area

7.09 km²

1.57 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦63.3bn/yr

60.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.9 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gwaram

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦63.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦54.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.78tn

NPV₦419bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.9 yr

Unlocked energy48.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity217 MWp

Capex₦229bn

Year-one energy value₦194bn

Lifetime energy value₦8.86tn

NPV₦1.5tn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Gwaram's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 217 MWp
Capital cost: ₦229bn
Year 1 savings: ₦194bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.5tn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gwaram pays back quickly

Of the 191,393 buildings in Gwaram with a modelled payback, 27.3% pay back inside five years and 6.3% inside three.

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How much of Gwaram's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gwaram consume 153 GWh/yr but want 201 GWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gwaram

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gwaram actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 191,393 buildings with a modelled result out of 198,238 in Gwaram. 82,397 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,110 (6%)

Under 5 years52,342 (27%)

Under 7 years82,665 (43%)

Under 10 years107,046 (56%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%101,099 (51%)

Above 15%82,397 (42%)

Above 20%62,494 (32%)

Above 25%35,316 (18%)

CO₂ avoided

100 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

18.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

48.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

356k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gwaram.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Gwaram

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	63,421	3,484	₦20.4bn	₦17.1bn	9%	13.1 yr
C	51,627	4,281	₦19.3bn	₦15.9bn	9%	9.1 yr
E	49,342	1,676	₦11.9bn	₦10.2bn	7%	13.6 yr
B	29,447	2,448	₦9.4bn	₦8.87bn	17%	6.1 yr
A	4,401	148	₦2.21bn	₦2.11bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	196,874	11,223	₦12bn	₦12bn	11%	8.9 yr
Anchor	864	494	₦49.3bn	₦40.6bn	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	234	173	₦1.8bn	₦1.62bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	106	47	₦16m	₦16m	29%	3.4 yr
Productive Use	90	52	₦53m	₦53m	41%	1.6 yr
Worship	55	38	₦21.7m	₦21.7m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	13	8	₦7.25m	₦7.24m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	2	2	₦2.44m	₦2.44m	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	113,393	4,212	₦762m	₦762m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	42,203	3,426	₦854m	₦854m	15%	6.9 yr
50 100m2	23,569	2,065	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	19%	5.6 yr
100 250m2	11,719	1,181	₦2.34bn	₦2.34bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	5,846	737	₦6.98bn	₦6.89bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	1,508	416	₦51.3bn	₦42.4bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	64,990	2,321	₦10.5bn	₦8.85bn	5%	17.4 yr
Rural	55,261	3,001	₦19.6bn	₦16.4bn	15%	6.4 yr
Urban	44,167	3,983	₦21.6bn	₦18bn	15%	7.1 yr
Dense Urban	33,820	2,732	₦11.6bn	₦11bn	19%	5.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	131,707	4,960	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Informal	38,710	2,937	₦3.98bn	₦3.98bn	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Small	16,123	2,096	₦930m	₦929m	19%	5.4 yr
Residential	10,334	1,230	₦6.04bn	₦6.02bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	758	427	₦49bn	₦40.3bn	47%	2.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	185	94	₦49.3m	₦49.3m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	122	88	₦187m	₦187m	83%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	69	46	₦575m	₦527m	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	53	50	₦305m	₦294m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial	35	22	₦981m	₦812m	71%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	32	20	₦8.6m	₦8.6m	41%	2.4 yr
School	31	19	₦72.9m	₦72.9m	71%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	198,234	12,037	₦63.3bn	₦54.3bn
Farmland	4	0	₦228k	₦228k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	197,284	11,468	₦12.6bn	₦12.6bn	11%	8.9 yr
Enterprise	868	495	₦49.3bn	₦40.6bn	49%	2.1 yr
SME High	86	74	₦1.28bn	₦1.1bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	116,226	4,486	₦886m	₦886m
2.0	31,941	3,122	₦2.12bn	₦2.11bn
1.0	25,361	1,555	₦589m	₦589m
3.0	17,449	2,154	₦21bn	₦17.9bn
4.0	7,247	706	₦37.6bn	₦31.9bn
5.0	14	14	₦1.03bn	₦845m