Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Garki, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Garki has 108,953 buildings with a viable rooftop and 656 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.85bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

108,953

Usable roof area

2.97 km²

656 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.85bn/yr

5.37 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.4 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Garki

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.85bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.66bn

Lifetime cash saved₦425bn

NPV₦58.8bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.4 yr

Unlocked energy9.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity63.6 MWp

Capex₦69.9bn

Year-one energy value₦75.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.59tn

NPV₦621bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Garki's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 63.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦69.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦75.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦621bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Garki pays back quickly

Of the 107,811 buildings in Garki with a modelled payback, 24.4% pay back inside five years and 3.4% inside three.

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How much of Garki's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Garki consume 17.9 GWh/yr but want 27 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Garki

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Garki actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 107,811 buildings with a modelled result out of 108,953 in Garki. 34,822 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,687 (3%)

Under 5 years26,299 (24%)

Under 7 years34,892 (32%)

Under 10 years45,130 (42%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%41,085 (38%)

Above 15%34,822 (32%)

Above 20%28,971 (27%)

Above 25%20,682 (19%)

CO₂ avoided

16.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.03 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

262k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Garki.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Garki

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	39,427	664	₦1.27bn	₦1.27bn	7%	15.1 yr
C	31,881	805	₦2.71bn	₦2.54bn	7%	13.9 yr
E	28,730	1,341	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn	5%	16.1 yr
A	5,309	70	₦970m	₦953m	25%	4.4 yr
B	3,606	789	₦1.84bn	₦1.84bn	29%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	108,382	3,167	₦5.92bn	₦5.81bn	7%	14.4 yr
Anchor	228	187	₦1.67bn	₦1.59bn	81%	1.4 yr
Productive Use	119	111	₦36.5m	₦36.5m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship	111	106	₦21m	₦21m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	96	81	₦183m	₦183m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	7	7	₦5.89m	₦5.89m	71%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	6	6	₦3.84m	₦3.84m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	4	4	₦3.5m	₦3.5m	71%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	66,760	1,539	₦310m	₦310m	5%	17.6 yr
30 50m2	19,400	712	₦277m	₦277m	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	14,239	655	₦717m	₦717m	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	6,753	552	₦2.08bn	₦1.99bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,708	190	₦3.02bn	₦2.96bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	93	21	₦1.44bn	₦1.4bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	49,823	1,078	₦1.75bn	₦1.67bn	5%	17.1 yr
Rural	37,729	1,694	₦1.99bn	₦1.91bn	9%	12.9 yr
Urban	13,453	119	₦918m	₦918m	7%	14.1 yr
Dense Urban	7,948	778	₦3.19bn	₦3.16bn	25%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	78,382	1,839	₦376m	₦376m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Small	15,875	626	₦677m	₦677m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	7,500	401	₦3.21bn	₦3.1bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	6,625	301	₦1.66bn	₦1.66bn	27%	3.9 yr
Educational Facility	126	103	₦138m	₦138m	85%	1.1 yr
Institutional	123	99	₦1.22bn	₦1.2bn	59%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	99	92	₦23.8m	₦23.8m	67%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	86	83	₦10.9m	₦10.9m	65%	1.6 yr
School	41	38	₦30.6m	₦30.6m	87%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	29	24	₦396m	₦334m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial	20	19	₦12.7m	₦12.7m	67%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	14	13	₦3.68m	₦3.68m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	108,953	3,669	₦7.85bn	₦7.66bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	108,712	3,469	₦6.17bn	₦6.06bn	7%	14.4 yr
Enterprise	232	192	₦1.68bn	₦1.59bn	81%	1.4 yr
SME High	9	8	₦4.75m	₦4.75m	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	76,383	1,888	₦361m	₦361m
2.0	14,091	796	₦1.8bn	₦1.72bn
1.0	12,199	471	₦435m	₦435m
3.0	5,117	440	₦3.72bn	₦3.63bn
4.0	1,163	74	₦1.53bn	₦1.51bn