Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Malam Madori, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Malam Madori has 96,063 buildings with a viable rooftop and 837 MWp of roof capacity. 14% run a generator, and together they spend ₦41.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

96,063

Usable roof area

3.76 km²

837 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦41.9bn/yr

34.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Malam Madori

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦41.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦39.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.03tn

NPV₦310bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy20.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity105 MWp

Capex₦112bn

Year-one energy value₦104bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.9tn

NPV₦832bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Malam Madori's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 105 MWp
Capital cost: ₦112bn
Year 1 savings: ₦104bn/yr
NPV: ₦832bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Malam Madori pays back quickly

Of the 95,626 buildings in Malam Madori with a modelled payback, 47.1% pay back inside five years and 14.3% inside three.

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How much of Malam Madori's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Malam Madori consume 74 GWh/yr but want 94.9 GWh/yr. The 22% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Malam Madori

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Malam Madori actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 95,626 buildings with a modelled result out of 96,063 in Malam Madori. 54,724 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,636 (14%)

Under 5 years45,070 (47%)

Under 7 years54,817 (57%)

Under 10 years62,973 (66%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%60,256 (63%)

Above 15%54,724 (57%)

Above 20%48,120 (50%)

Above 25%38,527 (40%)

CO₂ avoided

69.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

19 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

20.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

253k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Malam Madori.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Malam Madori

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	25,882	6,837	₦15bn	₦14.8bn	31%	3.6 yr
E	24,186	1,188	₦3.77bn	₦3.26bn	9%	13.6 yr
D	21,777	1,307	₦3.47bn	₦3.4bn	7%	14.4 yr
C	14,649	491	₦1.71bn	₦1.7bn	15%	7.1 yr
B	9,569	3,858	₦18bn	₦16bn	31%	3.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	95,584	13,312	₦32.2bn	₦31bn	19%	5.4 yr
Anchor	264	200	₦9.11bn	₦7.59bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	119	91	₦492m	₦486m	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	80	67	₦67.4m	₦67.4m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	14	9	₦41.4m	₦41.3m	45%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	2	2	₦8.8m	₦8.8m	49%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	48,520	4,196	₦608m	₦608m	7%	14.9 yr
30 50m2	18,151	2,676	₦830m	₦797m	23%	4.9 yr
50 100m2	17,606	3,432	₦2.61bn	₦2.61bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	8,676	2,279	₦8.62bn	₦8.43bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,821	979	₦16.9bn	₦16.1bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	289	119	₦12.4bn	₦10.6bn	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	28,963	8,322	₦26.6bn	₦25.1bn	31%	3.4 yr
Urban	23,314	2,474	₦9.24bn	₦8.29bn	17%	6.4 yr
Rural	23,020	2,098	₦1.89bn	₦1.87bn	11%	8.6 yr
Unclassified	20,766	787	₦4.16bn	₦3.88bn	5%	16.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	54,019	4,274	₦661m	₦661m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Informal	25,613	6,976	₦13.4bn	₦13.4bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Small	10,412	1,074	₦1.47bn	₦1.43bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential	5,540	988	₦16.7bn	₦15.5bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	180	135	₦8.71bn	₦7.23bn	53%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	117	96	₦267m	₦267m	79%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	41	32	₦420m	₦393m	51%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	38	32	₦8.23m	₦8.23m	63%	1.6 yr
School	29	20	₦63.4m	₦63.4m	63%	1.6 yr
Unknown	23	15	₦43m	₦43m	41%	2.6 yr
Place Of Worship	13	10	₦5.59m	₦5.59m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	11	6	₦35.9m	₦35.8m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	96,063	13,681	₦41.9bn	₦39.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	95,790	13,473	₦32.8bn	₦31.5bn	19%	5.4 yr
Enterprise	265	201	₦9.04bn	₦7.54bn	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	8	7	₦137m	₦122m	49%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	49,312	3,591	₦530m	₦530m
2.0	20,256	4,299	₦4.48bn	₦4.42bn
1.0	11,837	1,438	₦678m	₦645m
3.0	9,972	2,897	₦25.3bn	₦23.3bn
4.0	4,684	1,454	₦10.9bn	₦10.2bn
5.0	2	2	₦30.8m	₦30.8m