Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Kiyawa, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Kiyawa has 129,804 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.11 GWp of roof capacity. 18% run a generator, and together they spend ₦61.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

129,804

Usable roof area

4.98 km²

1.11 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦61.5bn/yr

56.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.1 yr

Median IRR 13% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kiyawa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦61.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦52.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.66tn

NPV₦412bn

Median IRR13%

Median payback8.1 yr

Unlocked energy30.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity161 MWp

Capex₦171bn

Year-one energy value₦160bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.43tn

NPV₦1.27tn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kiyawa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 161 MWp
Capital cost: ₦171bn
Year 1 savings: ₦160bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.27tn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kiyawa pays back quickly

Of the 129,142 buildings in Kiyawa with a modelled payback, 39.6% pay back inside five years and 17.9% inside three.

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How much of Kiyawa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kiyawa consume 126 GWh/yr but want 156 GWh/yr. The 20% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kiyawa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kiyawa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 129,142 buildings with a modelled result out of 129,804 in Kiyawa. 61,624 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years23,106 (18%)

Under 5 years51,184 (40%)

Under 7 years61,715 (48%)

Under 10 years74,631 (58%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%70,856 (55%)

Above 15%61,624 (47%)

Above 20%54,872 (42%)

Above 25%43,463 (33%)

CO₂ avoided

90.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

22.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

30.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

340k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kiyawa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kiyawa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	38,448	5,104	₦13.4bn	₦11.6bn	9%	13.4 yr
E	32,823	2,444	₦6.49bn	₦4.97bn	7%	14.6 yr
C	29,203	5,530	₦10.6bn	₦9.09bn	11%	9.4 yr
B	22,229	7,510	₦22bn	₦19.5bn	29%	3.9 yr
A	7,101	2,560	₦8.98bn	₦7.29bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	128,822	22,386	₦27.1bn	₦26.9bn	11%	8.4 yr
Anchor	472	339	₦31.9bn	₦23.2bn	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	233	200	₦2.28bn	₦2.21bn	61%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	188	144	₦104m	₦104m	59%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	43	43	₦45m	₦45m	69%	1.6 yr
Worship	17	15	₦4.89m	₦4.89m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	15	7	₦10m	₦10m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	9	9	₦13.8m	₦13.7m	73%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	5	5	₦17.6m	₦17.6m	71%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	73,054	8,471	₦1.2bn	₦1.2bn	5%	15.9 yr
30 50m2	26,738	6,338	₦1.54bn	₦1.54bn	21%	5.1 yr
50 100m2	15,168	3,923	₦1.98bn	₦1.97bn	29%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	9,229	2,709	₦5.88bn	₦5.85bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	4,802	1,370	₦14.5bn	₦14.3bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	813	337	₦36.4bn	₦27.6bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	47,967	3,523	₦9.47bn	₦8.53bn	7%	15.6 yr
Urban	39,832	7,242	₦19.2bn	₦15.9bn	17%	5.9 yr
Rural	22,367	5,615	₦11bn	₦9.2bn	17%	6.4 yr
Dense Urban	19,638	6,768	₦21.8bn	₦18.8bn	27%	3.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	84,881	10,289	₦1.69bn	₦1.69bn	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Informal	21,051	6,820	₦7.41bn	₦7.41bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Small	12,032	2,665	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	9,892	1,841	₦15.2bn	₦14.9bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	919	725	₦995m	₦995m	57%	1.9 yr
Institutional	372	254	₦31.3bn	₦22.6bn	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	224	180	₦143m	₦143m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	107	93	₦219m	₦219m	91%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	104	89	₦1.75bn	₦1.68bn	63%	1.6 yr
School	44	39	₦177m	₦177m	87%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	38	31	₦551m	₦524m	59%	1.6 yr
Apartment	28	27	₦32.6m	₦32.6m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	129,804	23,148	₦61.5bn	₦52.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	129,215	22,710	₦27.8bn	₦27.6bn	11%	8.1 yr
Enterprise	470	336	₦31.8bn	₦23.1bn	65%	1.6 yr
SME High	119	102	₦1.82bn	₦1.75bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	79,813	8,490	₦1.42bn	₦1.42bn
2.0	21,874	5,846	₦4.15bn	₦4.13bn
1.0	13,837	3,648	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn
3.0	10,310	3,373	₦23.7bn	₦20.8bn
4.0	3,951	1,773	₦30.4bn	₦24.4bn
5.0	17	16	₦597m	₦567m
6.0	2	2	₦85.6m	₦85.6m