Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Buji, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Buji has 67,140 buildings with a viable rooftop and 263 MWp of roof capacity. 1% run a generator, and together they spend ₦1.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

67,140

Usable roof area

1.2 km²

263 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦1.8bn/yr

1.22 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.4 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Buji

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦1.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦1.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦104bn

NPV₦12.8bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.4 yr

Unlocked energy2.75 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity24 MWp

Capex₦27.1bn

Year-one energy value₦29.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.42tn

NPV₦246bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Buji's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 24 MWp
Capital cost: ₦27.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦29.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦246bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Buji pays back quickly

Of the 66,015 buildings in Buji with a modelled payback, 11.9% pay back inside five years and 0.6% inside three.

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How much of Buji's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Buji consume 4.29 GWh/yr but want 7.04 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Buji

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Buji actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 66,015 buildings with a modelled result out of 67,140 in Buji. 12,320 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years375 (1%)

Under 5 years7,831 (12%)

Under 7 years12,363 (19%)

Under 10 years17,259 (26%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%15,393 (23%)

Above 15%12,320 (18%)

Above 20%8,872 (13%)

Above 25%6,619 (10%)

CO₂ avoided

4.12 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

676885 litres/yr

Energy unlocked

2.75 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

125k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Buji.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Buji

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	24,252	98	₦624m	₦624m	5%	17.4 yr
D	21,958	93	₦466m	₦466m	3%	18.4 yr
C	16,524	45	₦310m	₦310m	5%	17.9 yr
A	3,376	82	₦272m	₦272m	21%	5.1 yr
B	1,030	43	₦125m	₦125m	13%	8.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	66,898	170	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	5%	17.4 yr
Anchor	134	101	₦267m	₦267m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	80	63	₦78.6m	₦78.6m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	21	21	₦1.49m	₦1.49m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	6	5	₦2.16m	₦2.16m	67%	1.4 yr
Worship	1	1	₦572k	₦572k	47%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	49,008	101	₦101m	₦101m	3%	19.1 yr
30 50m2	11,552	45	₦119m	₦119m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	4,989	53	₦255m	₦255m	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,335	115	₦588m	₦587m	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	252	47	₦735m	₦735m	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	4	0	₦923k	₦923k	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	28,458	196	₦867m	₦867m	5%	17.1 yr
Unclassified	25,973	134	₦807m	₦807m	3%	18.9 yr
Rural	12,709	31	₦123m	₦123m	7%	15.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	53,557	45	₦101m	₦101m	3%	18.6 yr
Residential Small	6,976	41	₦311m	₦311m	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	6,365	84	₦1.04bn	₦1.03bn	15%	7.1 yr
Institutional	73	56	₦72.7m	₦72.7m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	44	32	₦44.2m	₦44.2m	85%	1.1 yr
School	38	27	₦24.8m	₦24.8m	83%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	29	21	₦186m	₦186m	57%	1.9 yr
Clinic	23	21	₦12.4m	₦12.4m	55%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	21	21	₦1.49m	₦1.49m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial Site	5	5	₦2.13m	₦2.13m	71%	1.4 yr
Market	4	4	₦734k	₦734k	57%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	3	3	₦5.14m	₦5.14m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	67,140	361	₦1.8bn	₦1.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	66,998	252	₦1.52bn	₦1.52bn	5%	17.4 yr
Enterprise	139	106	₦270m	₦270m	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	3	3	₦5.14m	₦5.14m	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	53,558	46	₦101m	₦101m
2.0	6,948	109	₦478m	₦478m
1.0	5,229	84	₦179m	₦179m
3.0	1,403	120	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn
4.0	2	2	₦4.47m	₦4.47m