Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Biriniwa, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Biriniwa has 68,183 buildings with a viable rooftop and 251 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.58bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

68,183

Usable roof area

1.14 km²

251 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.58bn/yr

6.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.4 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Biriniwa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.58bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦5.91bn

Lifetime cash saved₦320bn

NPV₦46.7bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback15.4 yr

Unlocked energy6.09 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity41.6 MWp

Capex₦45.6bn

Year-one energy value₦51.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.42tn

NPV₦423bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Biriniwa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 41.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦45.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦51.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦423bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Biriniwa pays back quickly

Of the 67,924 buildings in Biriniwa with a modelled payback, 17.1% pay back inside five years and 2.9% inside three.

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How much of Biriniwa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Biriniwa consume 13.4 GWh/yr but want 19.5 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Biriniwa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Biriniwa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 67,924 buildings with a modelled result out of 68,183 in Biriniwa. 14,243 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,958 (3%)

Under 5 years11,616 (17%)

Under 7 years14,265 (21%)

Under 10 years20,225 (30%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%17,568 (26%)

Above 15%14,243 (21%)

Above 20%12,389 (18%)

Above 25%10,357 (15%)

CO₂ avoided

11.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.61 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.09 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

178k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Biriniwa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Biriniwa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	22,071	241	₦1.81bn	₦1.24bn	7%	15.9 yr
D	21,931	137	₦1.59bn	₦1.11bn	5%	16.4 yr
C	18,541	124	₦1.4bn	₦882m	7%	15.6 yr
A	4,071	888	₦1.28bn	₦1.28bn	31%	3.4 yr
B	1,569	547	₦1.51bn	₦1.4bn	31%	3.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	67,783	1,595	₦6.31bn	₦4.64bn	7%	15.4 yr
Anchor	185	155	₦973m	₦971m	89%	1.1 yr
Commercial General	112	92	₦277m	₦277m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	86	80	₦16.6m	₦16.6m	65%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	12	11	₦1.16m	₦1.16m	69%	1.6 yr
Industrial	4	3	₦2.07m	₦2.07m	75%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦420k	₦420k	53%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	52,231	886	₦351m	₦267m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	10,083	396	₦433m	₦433m	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	4,669	335	₦1.26bn	₦1.13bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,059	266	₦3.49bn	₦2.18bn	33%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	133	51	₦1.88bn	₦1.72bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	8	3	₦170m	₦170m	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	44,620	339	₦3.48bn	₦2.02bn	5%	16.9 yr
Rural	18,395	187	₦1.69bn	₦1.48bn	9%	13.6 yr
Dense Urban	4,335	1,109	₦1.27bn	₦1.27bn	31%	3.4 yr
Urban	833	302	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	21%	5.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	54,292	984	₦221m	₦221m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Small	5,883	407	₦1.58bn	₦1.45bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	5,308	204	₦4.41bn	₦2.87bn	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,292	0	₦95.4m	₦95.4m	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	135	115	₦425m	₦425m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	82	69	₦130m	₦130m	93%	1.1 yr
School	56	46	₦65.1m	₦65.1m	89%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	32	30	₦3.06m	₦3.06m	67%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	29	24	₦602m	₦600m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	27	25	₦4.94m	₦4.94m	67%	1.6 yr
Clinic	15	13	₦7.88m	₦7.88m	59%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	10	10	₦959k	₦959k	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	68,183	1,937	₦7.58bn	₦5.91bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	67,993	1,778	₦6.6bn	₦4.93bn	7%	15.4 yr
Enterprise	187	156	₦974m	₦972m	89%	1.1 yr
SME High	3	3	₦2.51m	₦2.51m	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	54,324	1,015	₦224m	₦224m
2.0	5,513	412	₦2.3bn	₦1.73bn
1.0	4,537	211	₦567m	₦483m
3.0	2,004	299	₦4.39bn	₦3.38bn
4.0	1,805	0	₦98.7m	₦98.7m