Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Gagarawa, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Gagarawa has 43,800 buildings with a viable rooftop and 325 MWp of roof capacity. 17% run a generator, and together they spend ₦15.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

43,800

Usable roof area

1.46 km²

325 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦15.6bn/yr

14.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.1 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gagarawa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦15.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦13.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦677bn

NPV₦105bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback7.1 yr

Unlocked energy5.69 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity39.4 MWp

Capex₦42.6bn

Year-one energy value₦42.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.01tn

NPV₦345bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Gagarawa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 39.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦42.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦42.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦345bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gagarawa pays back quickly

Of the 43,590 buildings in Gagarawa with a modelled payback, 41.6% pay back inside five years and 17.3% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Gagarawa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gagarawa consume 28.9 GWh/yr but want 34.6 GWh/yr. The 16% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Gagarawa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gagarawa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 43,590 buildings with a modelled result out of 43,800 in Gagarawa. 21,765 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,541 (17%)

Under 5 years18,155 (42%)

Under 7 years21,791 (50%)

Under 10 years26,113 (60%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%24,736 (56%)

Above 15%21,765 (50%)

Above 20%19,384 (44%)

Above 25%15,621 (36%)

CO₂ avoided

22.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.48 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.69 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

103k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gagarawa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gagarawa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	15,535	2,473	₦3.64bn	₦3.46bn	21%	5.4 yr
D	12,893	923	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	7%	13.9 yr
E	10,071	1,506	₦1.72bn	₦1.62bn	9%	13.1 yr
A	2,875	2,622	₦8.82bn	₦6.98bn	57%	1.9 yr
B	2,426	30	₦264m	₦248m	25%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	43,563	7,329	₦9.33bn	₦9.21bn	13%	7.1 yr
Anchor	132	126	₦5.8bn	₦3.79bn	87%	1.1 yr
Commercial General	64	59	₦286m	₦286m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	38	37	₦156m	₦154m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	3	3	₦6.32m	₦6.32m	53%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	25,871	3,107	₦451m	₦451m	7%	14.9 yr
30 50m2	7,625	1,624	₦425m	₦425m	21%	4.9 yr
50 100m2	5,530	1,425	₦909m	₦909m	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	3,438	939	₦2.49bn	₦2.45bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,244	393	₦4.93bn	₦4.81bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	92	66	₦6.37bn	₦4.4bn	61%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	23,009	4,010	₦4.35bn	₦4.2bn	19%	5.6 yr
Unclassified	11,808	462	₦844m	₦827m	5%	16.4 yr
Urban	4,645	827	₦2.3bn	₦2.13bn	17%	6.4 yr
Dense Urban	4,338	2,255	₦8.09bn	₦6.28bn	47%	2.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	28,740	3,212	₦526m	₦526m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Informal	5,973	2,801	₦4.75bn	₦4.75bn	33%	3.4 yr
Residential Small	5,186	834	₦624m	₦624m	27%	3.9 yr
Residential	3,664	482	₦3.43bn	₦3.31bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	89	86	₦5.42bn	₦3.45bn	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	64	61	₦178m	₦178m	93%	1.1 yr
School	23	20	₦38.5m	₦38.5m	89%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	20	20	₦528m	₦485m	59%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	17	16	₦7.03m	₦7.03m	61%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	8	8	₦3.33m	₦3.33m	57%	1.6 yr
Clinic	6	6	₦11m	₦11m	55%	1.9 yr
Unknown	4	2	₦265k	₦265k	33%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	43,800	7,554	₦15.6bn	₦13.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	43,665	7,425	₦9.77bn	₦9.65bn	15%	7.1 yr
Enterprise	135	129	₦5.81bn	₦3.8bn	87%	1.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	26,318	2,700	₦410m	₦410m
2.0	7,585	2,332	₦2.23bn	₦2.22bn
1.0	6,102	1,181	₦471m	₦471m
3.0	3,149	995	₦5.42bn	₦5.12bn
4.0	646	346	₦7.04bn	₦5.23bn