Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Guri, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Guri has 59,212 buildings with a viable rooftop and 352 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦5.55bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

59,212

Usable roof area

1.59 km²

352 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦5.55bn/yr

4.16 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Guri

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦5.55bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦5.01bn

Lifetime cash saved₦274bn

NPV₦38.4bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback8.9 yr

Unlocked energy5.67 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity33.4 MWp

Capex₦36.6bn

Year-one energy value₦37.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.77tn

NPV₦306bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Guri's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 33.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦36.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦37.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦306bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Guri pays back quickly

Of the 56,031 buildings in Guri with a modelled payback, 25.9% pay back inside five years and 2.7% inside three.

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How much of Guri's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Guri consume 12.7 GWh/yr but want 18.4 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Guri

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Guri actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 56,031 buildings with a modelled result out of 59,212 in Guri. 24,567 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,488 (3%)

Under 5 years14,503 (26%)

Under 7 years24,628 (44%)

Under 10 years30,924 (55%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%29,326 (50%)

Above 15%24,567 (41%)

Above 20%17,479 (30%)

Above 25%10,365 (18%)

CO₂ avoided

10.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.88 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.67 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

133k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Guri.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Guri

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	23,867	561	₦1.89bn	₦1.52bn	11%	8.6 yr
E	15,817	58	₦493m	₦454m	7%	14.6 yr
C	13,726	33	₦289m	₦288m	7%	13.1 yr
A	5,236	351	₦1.22bn	₦1.18bn	23%	4.6 yr
B	566	455	₦1.65bn	₦1.57bn	75%	1.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	58,805	1,215	₦3.63bn	₦3.33bn	9%	8.9 yr
Anchor	149	94	₦1.82bn	₦1.58bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	100	65	₦20.3m	₦20.3m	37%	2.6 yr
Productive Use	59	50	₦10.9m	₦10.9m	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	49	26	₦59.9m	₦59.9m	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	36	0	₦376k	₦376k	23%	4.6 yr
Hospitality	6	3	₦1.75m	₦1.75m	37%	1.6 yr
Industrial	6	3	₦4.96m	₦4.96m	41%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	2	2	₦436k	₦436k	69%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	36,772	494	₦157m	₦156m	5%	16.1 yr
30 50m2	9,796	280	₦159m	₦158m	15%	6.6 yr
50 100m2	8,344	297	₦441m	₦441m	25%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	3,251	293	₦1.55bn	₦1.27bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	942	81	₦2.06bn	₦1.95bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	107	13	₦1.18bn	₦1.03bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	34,836	596	₦1.73bn	₦1.48bn	11%	8.1 yr
Unclassified	13,981	53	₦828m	₦662m	3%	17.6 yr
Dense Urban	5,682	782	₦2.53bn	₦2.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	4,713	27	₦466m	₦465m	13%	7.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	36,430	156	₦135m	₦135m	5%	15.6 yr
Residential Informal	11,547	723	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	7,016	255	₦578m	₦426m	21%	4.9 yr
Residential	3,812	81	₦1.61bn	₦1.46bn	19%	5.4 yr
Institutional	94	49	₦957m	₦870m	35%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	86	42	₦9.63m	₦9.63m	35%	3.1 yr
Educational Facility	75	52	₦94.8m	₦94.8m	77%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	38	23	₦3.59m	₦3.59m	37%	2.9 yr
Place Of Worship	33	25	₦3.59m	₦3.59m	65%	1.6 yr
School	23	17	₦30.2m	₦30.2m	85%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	20	13	₦594m	₦505m	39%	1.9 yr
Commercial	13	8	₦1.95m	₦1.95m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	59,212	1,458	₦5.55bn	₦5.01bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	59,052	1,359	₦3.72bn	₦3.42bn	9%	8.9 yr
Enterprise	152	95	₦1.68bn	₦1.5bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	8	4	₦146m	₦81.7m	37%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	34,564	150	₦118m	₦118m
2.0	11,228	593	₦883m	₦733m
1.0	7,550	220	₦150m	₦148m
3.0	4,609	387	₦3.27bn	₦2.93bn
4.0	1,261	108	₦1.13bn	₦1.08bn