Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Kaugama, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Kaugama has 81,380 buildings with a viable rooftop and 611 MWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦13.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

81,380

Usable roof area

2.76 km²

611 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦13.9bn/yr

10.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.4 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kaugama

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦13.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦674bn

NPV₦98.9bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.4 yr

Unlocked energy10.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity60.7 MWp

Capex₦65.9bn

Year-one energy value₦66.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.13tn

NPV₦536bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kaugama's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 60.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦65.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦66.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦536bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kaugama pays back quickly

Of the 80,761 buildings in Kaugama with a modelled payback, 33.9% pay back inside five years and 6.7% inside three.

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How much of Kaugama's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kaugama consume 28.9 GWh/yr but want 39.4 GWh/yr. The 27% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kaugama

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kaugama actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 80,761 buildings with a modelled result out of 81,380 in Kaugama. 36,783 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,374 (7%)

Under 5 years27,377 (34%)

Under 7 years36,881 (46%)

Under 10 years48,380 (60%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%44,657 (55%)

Above 15%36,783 (45%)

Above 20%30,017 (37%)

Above 25%22,760 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

24.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.43 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

187k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kaugama.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kaugama

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	23,915	788	₦857m	₦857m	9%	13.1 yr
C	22,805	703	₦2.37bn	₦2.16bn	9%	9.6 yr
E	17,407	51	₦1.02bn	₦682m	9%	13.1 yr
B	9,046	1,165	₦3.61bn	₦3.1bn	25%	4.1 yr
A	8,207	2,641	₦6.07bn	₦5.8bn	31%	3.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	81,097	5,138	₦9.86bn	₦9.3bn	11%	8.4 yr
Anchor	171	130	₦3.83bn	₦3.08bn	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	76	57	₦195m	₦188m	51%	2.1 yr
Worship	21	15	₦26.4m	₦26.4m	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	15	8	₦6.97m	₦6.9m	43%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	43,078	1,801	₦353m	₦352m	7%	15.1 yr
30 50m2	16,607	1,032	₦356m	₦356m	13%	7.9 yr
50 100m2	13,027	1,168	₦922m	₦921m	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	6,512	983	₦3.66bn	₦3.39bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,007	319	₦4.43bn	₦4.13bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	149	45	₦4.2bn	₦3.45bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	33,914	1,055	₦2.25bn	₦2.14bn	13%	8.1 yr
Unclassified	27,615	176	₦1.21bn	₦1.07bn	7%	15.1 yr
Dense Urban	12,401	3,345	₦7.88bn	₦7.1bn	29%	3.9 yr
Urban	7,450	772	₦2.58bn	₦2.29bn	19%	5.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	52,281	2,446	₦451m	₦451m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Informal	12,498	2,008	₦5.38bn	₦5.19bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Small	10,934	344	₦578m	₦577m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	5,384	340	₦3.46bn	₦3.08bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	100	74	₦3.62bn	₦2.86bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	95	76	₦188m	₦188m	83%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	24	20	₦211m	₦210m	59%	1.6 yr
School	22	14	₦12.5m	₦12.5m	83%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	9	6	₦2.84m	₦2.84m	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	9	4	₦4.06m	₦4.06m	39%	2.6 yr
Industrial Site	5	3	₦2.18m	₦2.11m	49%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	5	4	₦1.93m	₦1.93m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	81,380	5,348	₦13.9bn	₦12.6bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	81,203	5,214	₦10.1bn	₦9.52bn	11%	8.4 yr
Enterprise	177	134	₦3.83bn	₦3.08bn	71%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	48,798	1,688	₦342m	₦342m
2.0	14,418	1,265	₦2.28bn	₦2.02bn
1.0	10,082	1,045	₦461m	₦460m
3.0	6,587	935	₦5.38bn	₦5.09bn
4.0	1,495	415	₦5.46bn	₦4.69bn