Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Gwiwa, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Gwiwa has 51,486 buildings with a viable rooftop and 351 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦4.76bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

51,486

Usable roof area

1.58 km²

351 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦4.76bn/yr

3.32 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.1 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gwiwa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦4.76bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦4.68bn

Lifetime cash saved₦266bn

NPV₦37.1bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.1 yr

Unlocked energy6.13 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity45.3 MWp

Capex₦48.9bn

Year-one energy value₦54.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.6tn

NPV₦452bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Gwiwa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 45.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦48.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦54.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦452bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gwiwa pays back quickly

Of the 51,242 buildings in Gwiwa with a modelled payback, 24.6% pay back inside five years and 3.2% inside three.

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How much of Gwiwa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gwiwa consume 11.5 GWh/yr but want 17.6 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gwiwa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gwiwa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 51,242 buildings with a modelled result out of 51,486 in Gwiwa. 16,020 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,634 (3%)

Under 5 years12,584 (25%)

Under 7 years16,049 (31%)

Under 10 years21,608 (42%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%19,541 (38%)

Above 15%16,020 (31%)

Above 20%13,597 (26%)

Above 25%10,671 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

10.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.74 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.13 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

197k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gwiwa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gwiwa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	18,041	126	₦952m	₦919m	7%	14.6 yr
E	15,734	170	₦1.37bn	₦1.37bn	7%	15.4 yr
C	15,243	572	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	9%	12.9 yr
A	1,914	673	₦1.09bn	₦1.03bn	31%	3.4 yr
B	554	53	₦64.3m	₦64.3m	21%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	50,774	955	₦3.31bn	₦3.28bn	7%	14.1 yr
Commercial Retail	410	382	₦38.5m	₦38.5m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	173	147	₦340m	₦340m	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	110	94	₦1.06bn	₦1.01bn	85%	1.1 yr
Worship	18	16	₦13.3m	₦13.3m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	1	0	₦73.4k	₦73.4k	39%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	30,260	582	₦114m	₦114m	5%	16.9 yr
30 50m2	10,558	344	₦129m	₦129m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	5,766	258	₦285m	₦285m	27%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	3,493	275	₦1.29bn	₦1.25bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,369	122	₦2bn	₦2bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	40	13	₦949m	₦895m	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	42,704	321	₦2.91bn	₦2.87bn	7%	14.6 yr
Unclassified	4,685	49	₦371m	₦371m	5%	15.9 yr
Dense Urban	4,097	1,224	₦1.49bn	₦1.43bn	31%	3.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	36,930	459	₦125m	₦125m	5%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	7,532	98	₦283m	₦283m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	4,554	130	₦2.43bn	₦2.4bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,758	268	₦474m	₦474m	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	410	382	₦38.5m	₦38.5m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	86	85	₦134m	₦134m	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	59	53	₦113m	₦113m	95%	1.1 yr
Institutional	50	41	₦837m	₦783m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial	41	27	₦71.9m	₦71.9m	49%	2.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	26	19	₦219m	₦219m	49%	1.9 yr
School	14	13	₦12.7m	₦12.7m	97%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	12	11	₦3.2m	₦3.2m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	51,486	1,594	₦4.76bn	₦4.68bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	51,248	1,388	₦3.5bn	₦3.46bn	7%	14.1 yr
SME High	127	112	₦206m	₦206m	49%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	111	94	₦1.06bn	₦1.01bn	85%	1.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	36,125	441	₦114m	₦114m
2.0	6,748	408	₦1.03bn	₦992m
1.0	5,349	370	₦180m	₦180m
3.0	2,881	265	₦2.39bn	₦2.39bn
4.0	333	74	₦926m	₦872m
5.0	38	29	₦77.1m	₦77.1m
6.0	12	7	₦50.3m	₦50.3m