Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Roni, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Roni has 48,062 buildings with a viable rooftop and 397 MWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

48,062

Usable roof area

1.79 km²

397 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.4bn/yr

11.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.4 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Roni

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11bn

Lifetime cash saved₦578bn

NPV₦87.1bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.4 yr

Unlocked energy8.12 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity56 MWp

Capex₦60.1bn

Year-one energy value₦64.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.04tn

NPV₦527bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Roni's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 56 MWp
Capital cost: ₦60.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦64.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦527bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Roni pays back quickly

Of the 47,909 buildings in Roni with a modelled payback, 34.9% pay back inside five years and 7.1% inside three.

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How much of Roni's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Roni consume 24.8 GWh/yr but want 32.9 GWh/yr. The 25% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Roni

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Roni actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 47,909 buildings with a modelled result out of 48,062 in Roni. 21,821 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,403 (7%)

Under 5 years16,713 (35%)

Under 7 years21,874 (46%)

Under 10 years28,303 (59%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%26,602 (55%)

Above 15%21,821 (45%)

Above 20%18,196 (38%)

Above 25%13,589 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

20.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.72 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.12 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

210k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Roni.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Roni

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	15,424	67	₦2.28bn	₦2.13bn	7%	14.4 yr
C	11,447	522	₦2.44bn	₦1.91bn	19%	5.6 yr
E	10,875	128	₦1.27bn	₦1.27bn	7%	13.9 yr
A	5,975	1,775	₦3.17bn	₦2.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
B	4,341	900	₦3.2bn	₦2.91bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	47,705	3,096	₦6.87bn	₦6.74bn	11%	8.4 yr
Anchor	138	100	₦4.37bn	₦3.31bn	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	97	86	₦1.01bn	₦846m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	85	85	₦66.9m	₦66.9m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	34	23	₦48m	₦48m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	3	2	₦3.84m	₦3.84m	57%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	25,260	1,040	₦208m	₦205m	5%	15.9 yr
30 50m2	10,114	703	₦248m	₦248m	13%	7.6 yr
50 100m2	7,046	765	₦650m	₦650m	27%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	3,927	574	₦1.75bn	₦1.75bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,561	269	₦4.66bn	₦4.37bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	154	41	₦4.85bn	₦3.78bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	31,894	500	₦4.64bn	₦3.97bn	9%	13.1 yr
Dense Urban	11,595	2,579	₦5.94bn	₦5.32bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	3,706	310	₦1.76bn	₦1.69bn	5%	16.4 yr
Rural	867	3	₦21.5m	₦21.5m	11%	9.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	31,378	1,147	₦242m	₦242m	7%	14.4 yr
Residential Small	7,745	443	₦530m	₦530m	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	4,824	1,292	₦2.28bn	₦2.28bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	3,758	214	₦3.82bn	₦3.69bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	99	62	₦4.33bn	₦3.27bn	55%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	85	85	₦66.9m	₦66.9m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	57	50	₦123m	₦123m	87%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	45	45	₦712m	₦553m	61%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	27	22	₦176m	₦176m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	20	15	₦7.77m	₦7.77m	67%	1.6 yr
School	10	7	₦44.4m	₦44.4m	85%	1.1 yr
Clinic	6	6	₦26m	₦26m	55%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	48,062	3,392	₦12.4bn	₦11bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	47,876	3,245	₦7.28bn	₦7.14bn	11%	8.4 yr
Enterprise	140	101	₦4.37bn	₦3.31bn	65%	1.6 yr
SME High	46	46	₦713m	₦553m	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	28,652	909	₦198m	₦198m
2.0	8,555	1,035	₦1.25bn	₦1.25bn
1.0	5,699	531	₦327m	₦325m
3.0	4,403	699	₦7.17bn	₦6.32bn
4.0	749	214	₦3.04bn	₦2.7bn
5.0	4	4	₦365m	₦218m