Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Kazaure, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Kazaure has 68,773 buildings with a viable rooftop and 620 MWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦26.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

68,773

Usable roof area

2.79 km²

620 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦26.3bn/yr

20.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.1 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kazaure

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦26.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦25.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.33tn

NPV₦198bn

Median IRR17%

Median payback6.1 yr

Unlocked energy17.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity88.3 MWp

Capex₦94.2bn

Year-one energy value₦85.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.01tn

NPV₦681bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kazaure's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 88.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦94.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦85.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦681bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kazaure pays back quickly

Of the 68,085 buildings in Kazaure with a modelled payback, 42.4% pay back inside five years and 7.2% inside three.

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How much of Kazaure's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kazaure consume 56 GWh/yr but want 73.1 GWh/yr. The 23% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kazaure

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kazaure actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 68,085 buildings with a modelled result out of 68,773 in Kazaure. 36,552 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,925 (7%)

Under 5 years28,852 (42%)

Under 7 years36,623 (54%)

Under 10 years43,427 (64%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%41,526 (60%)

Above 15%36,552 (53%)

Above 20%30,897 (45%)

Above 25%24,771 (36%)

CO₂ avoided

47.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

10.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

259k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kazaure.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kazaure

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	26,408	3,272	₦18.7bn	₦18bn	27%	3.9 yr
D	15,748	338	₦1.96bn	₦1.96bn	7%	14.6 yr
C	11,300	139	₦1.09bn	₦1.03bn	7%	14.1 yr
E	9,804	105	₦573m	₦573m	7%	15.4 yr
B	5,513	1,033	₦3.95bn	₦3.86bn	17%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	68,409	4,662	₦17.4bn	₦17.3bn	17%	6.1 yr
Anchor	191	103	₦7.47bn	₦6.73bn	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	117	81	₦1.4bn	₦1.36bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	44	35	₦19.7m	₦19.7m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	7	5	₦1.43m	₦1.43m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	4	1	₦1.01m	₦1.01m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦428k	₦428k	39%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	34,893	1,387	₦311m	₦311m	7%	15.4 yr
30 50m2	13,893	922	₦438m	₦428m	19%	5.6 yr
50 100m2	10,982	1,041	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	6,569	972	₦5.18bn	₦5.14bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,227	504	₦10.5bn	₦10.4bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	209	61	₦8.37bn	₦7.68bn	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	33,232	1,275	₦4.81bn	₦4.74bn	7%	14.1 yr
Urban Centre	25,486	3,316	₦19.7bn	₦18.9bn	27%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	4,793	195	₦878m	₦868m	7%	15.6 yr
Dense Urban	2,634	84	₦847m	₦827m	11%	7.6 yr
Rural	2,628	17	₦58.4m	₦58.4m	15%	6.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	36,561	1,463	₦332m	₦332m	7%	14.9 yr
Residential Informal	21,659	2,027	₦9.7bn	₦9.64bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	5,902	708	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	4,287	464	₦6.34bn	₦6.31bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	126	69	₦6.96bn	₦6.27bn	41%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	58	32	₦86m	₦86m	53%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	44	35	₦19.7m	₦19.7m	61%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	28	18	₦378m	₦335m	41%	1.9 yr
Commercial	27	27	₦946m	₦897m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	18	14	₦184m	₦184m	63%	1.6 yr
Unknown	18	9	₦196m	₦196m	35%	3.1 yr
School	16	9	₦11.1m	₦11.1m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	68,773	4,887	₦26.3bn	₦25.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	68,531	4,742	₦17.7bn	₦17.6bn	17%	6.1 yr
Enterprise	193	104	₦7.47bn	₦6.73bn	49%	2.1 yr
SME High	49	41	₦1.14bn	₦1.09bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	33,160	1,375	₦286m	₦286m
2.0	17,680	1,579	₦2.87bn	₦2.85bn
1.0	7,998	359	₦329m	₦327m
3.0	7,221	1,206	₦12.5bn	₦12.4bn
4.0	2,694	350	₦9.41bn	₦8.73bn
5.0	12	11	₦397m	₦361m
6.0	8	7	₦490m	₦480m