Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Auyo, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Auyo has 47,089 buildings with a viable rooftop and 319 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦17.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

47,089

Usable roof area

1.44 km²

319 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦17.2bn/yr

18.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.1 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Auyo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦17.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦16.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦869bn

NPV₦136bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback9.1 yr

Unlocked energy11.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity61.1 MWp

Capex₦64.8bn

Year-one energy value₦68.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.22tn

NPV₦557bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Auyo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 61.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦64.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦68.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦557bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Auyo pays back quickly

Of the 46,598 buildings in Auyo with a modelled payback, 31.9% pay back inside five years and 3.6% inside three.

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How much of Auyo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Auyo consume 29.2 GWh/yr but want 40.3 GWh/yr. The 27% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Auyo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Auyo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 46,598 buildings with a modelled result out of 47,089 in Auyo. 21,120 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,664 (4%)

Under 5 years14,888 (32%)

Under 7 years21,153 (45%)

Under 10 years25,538 (55%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%23,726 (50%)

Above 15%21,120 (45%)

Above 20%16,512 (35%)

Above 25%13,416 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

27.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

202k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Auyo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Auyo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	16,877	344	₦3.14bn	₦3.08bn	11%	8.9 yr
D	12,459	225	₦5.14bn	₦5.05bn	7%	14.4 yr
E	9,478	258	₦4.38bn	₦3.96bn	7%	14.6 yr
B	4,738	407	₦1.49bn	₦1.47bn	23%	4.9 yr
A	3,537	403	₦3.03bn	₦3.03bn	23%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	46,500	1,146	₦8.4bn	₦7.96bn	9%	9.4 yr
Anchor	191	153	₦8.34bn	₦8.19bn	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	167	152	₦46.8m	₦46.8m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	161	130	₦381m	₦381m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	68	56	₦11.8m	₦11.8m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	2	0	₦482k	₦482k	39%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	26,335	494	₦160m	₦159m	7%	15.1 yr
30 50m2	9,719	212	₦266m	₦266m	13%	8.1 yr
50 100m2	8,787	316	₦1.13bn	₦1.13bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	1,779	392	₦2.7bn	₦2.7bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	386	167	₦3.72bn	₦3.63bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	83	56	₦9.2bn	₦8.71bn	69%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	33,177	837	₦9.39bn	₦8.97bn	9%	12.9 yr
Unclassified	4,957	166	₦3.21bn	₦3.06bn	5%	15.4 yr
Dense Urban	4,076	523	₦2.58bn	₦2.58bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	4,030	73	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn	19%	5.9 yr
Urban Centre	849	38	₦625m	₦608m	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	31,394	370	₦144m	₦144m	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Small	11,767	372	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	3,339	404	₦6.9bn	₦6.47bn	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	167	152	₦46.8m	₦46.8m	61%	1.6 yr
Institutional	145	118	₦8.04bn	₦7.89bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	65	60	₦172m	₦172m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	62	46	₦72.2m	₦72.2m	87%	1.1 yr
School	53	41	₦61.5m	₦61.5m	85%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	26	20	₦336m	₦335m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	23	19	₦2.84m	₦2.84m	59%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	22	18	₦2.56m	₦2.56m	57%	1.6 yr
Clinic	17	13	₦40.7m	₦40m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	47,089	1,637	₦17.2bn	₦16.6bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	46,827	1,420	₦8.66bn	₦8.23bn	11%	9.4 yr
Enterprise	188	148	₦8.31bn	₦8.16bn	69%	1.6 yr
SME High	74	69	₦212m	₦211m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	31,404	376	₦145m	₦145m
2.0	8,126	412	₦1.74bn	₦1.73bn
1.0	5,437	357	₦533m	₦533m
3.0	2,109	480	₦14.7bn	₦14.1bn
4.0	13	12	₦107m	₦107m