Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Miga, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Miga has 73,434 buildings with a viable rooftop and 528 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.83bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

73,434

Usable roof area

2.39 km²

528 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.83bn/yr

5.83 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.6 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Miga

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.83bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.36bn

Lifetime cash saved₦412bn

NPV₦57.7bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.6 yr

Unlocked energy10 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity59.1 MWp

Capex₦63.8bn

Year-one energy value₦65.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.08tn

NPV₦531bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Miga's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 59.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦63.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦65.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦531bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Miga pays back quickly

Of the 71,550 buildings in Miga with a modelled payback, 28.3% pay back inside five years and 2.2% inside three.

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How much of Miga's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Miga consume 20.3 GWh/yr but want 30.3 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Miga

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Miga actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 71,550 buildings with a modelled result out of 73,434 in Miga. 33,072 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,548 (2%)

Under 5 years20,283 (28%)

Under 7 years33,149 (46%)

Under 10 years40,516 (57%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%38,055 (52%)

Above 15%33,072 (45%)

Above 20%24,671 (34%)

Above 25%14,048 (19%)

CO₂ avoided

16.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.41 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

216k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Miga.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Miga

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	29,429	78	₦1.26bn	₦1.22bn	9%	9.1 yr
E	23,338	854	₦2.29bn	₦2.13bn	13%	7.4 yr
C	17,732	347	₦1.87bn	₦1.61bn	9%	9.6 yr
A	2,626	0	₦849m	₦836m	19%	5.4 yr
B	309	229	₦1.56bn	₦1.56bn	73%	1.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	73,158	1,349	₦3.87bn	₦3.84bn	11%	8.6 yr
Anchor	170	90	₦3.87bn	₦3.43bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	55	40	₦29.8m	₦29.8m	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	49	28	₦59.7m	₦59.7m	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	2	1	₦756k	₦756k	41%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	38,928	545	₦184m	₦184m	7%	15.6 yr
30 50m2	16,081	346	₦175m	₦175m	11%	8.6 yr
50 100m2	10,857	285	₦422m	₦422m	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	5,215	190	₦826m	₦826m	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,148	96	₦1.93bn	₦1.9bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	205	46	₦4.29bn	₦3.85bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	48,236	829	₦3.13bn	₦3.01bn	11%	9.1 yr
Rural	13,043	129	₦1.22bn	₦1.14bn	19%	5.6 yr
Unclassified	10,262	414	₦1.59bn	₦1.33bn	5%	16.1 yr
Dense Urban	1,893	136	₦1.89bn	₦1.88bn	19%	5.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	48,044	738	₦263m	₦263m	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Informal	11,426	136	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	9,371	287	₦349m	₦349m	21%	4.9 yr
Residential	4,317	188	₦2.25bn	₦2.22bn	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	121	69	₦3.64bn	₦3.2bn	43%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	64	32	₦36.4m	₦36.4m	49%	2.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	26	16	₦262m	₦262m	43%	2.4 yr
Worship Center	26	19	₦5.86m	₦5.86m	55%	1.9 yr
School	19	11	₦8.76m	₦8.76m	55%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	9	7	₦2.01m	₦2.01m	55%	1.9 yr
Clinic	3	2	₦2.57m	₦2.57m	49%	2.1 yr
Unknown	3	1	₦813k	₦813k	33%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	73,434	1,508	₦7.83bn	₦7.36bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	73,260	1,416	₦3.96bn	₦3.93bn	11%	8.6 yr
Enterprise	171	90	₦3.87bn	₦3.43bn	49%	2.1 yr
SME High	3	2	₦1.53m	₦1.53m	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	45,116	708	₦239m	₦239m
2.0	13,147	325	₦754m	₦754m
1.0	8,576	141	₦190m	₦190m
3.0	5,509	279	₦4.34bn	₦4bn
4.0	1,086	55	₦2.31bn	₦2.18bn