Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Hadejia, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Hadejia has 39,155 buildings with a viable rooftop and 375 MWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.84bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

39,155

Usable roof area

1.69 km²

375 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.84bn/yr

5.66 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Hadejia

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.84bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.55bn

Lifetime cash saved₦407bn

NPV₦59.4bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy6.73 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity27 MWp

Capex₦29bn

Year-one energy value₦21.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦1tn

NPV₦164bn

Median IRR71%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Hadejia's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 27 MWp
Capital cost: ₦29bn
Year 1 savings: ₦21.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦164bn
Median IRR: 71%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Hadejia pays back quickly

Of the 38,921 buildings in Hadejia with a modelled payback, 50.9% pay back inside five years and 4.9% inside three.

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How much of Hadejia's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Hadejia consume 16.7 GWh/yr but want 23.4 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Hadejia

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Hadejia actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 38,921 buildings with a modelled result out of 39,155 in Hadejia. 29,954 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,909 (5%)

Under 5 years19,828 (51%)

Under 7 years30,064 (77%)

Under 10 years35,363 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%34,722 (89%)

Above 15%29,954 (77%)

Above 20%22,322 (57%)

Above 25%15,398 (39%)

CO₂ avoided

15 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.17 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.73 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

84.6k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Hadejia.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Hadejia

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	38,546	1,761	₦7.36bn	₦7.07bn	21%	4.9 yr
B	527	65	₦472m	₦472m	25%	3.9 yr
C	51	0	₦4.44m	₦4.44m	5%	16.9 yr
D	20	0	₦666k	₦666k	5%	17.6 yr
E	11	0	₦845k	₦845k	5%	16.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	38,506	1,398	₦6.21bn	₦5.94bn	21%	4.9 yr
Commercial Retail	257	254	₦55.5m	₦55.5m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	234	132	₦386m	₦386m	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	130	33	₦1.15bn	₦1.14bn	47%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	10	7	₦28.7m	₦28.7m	35%	2.9 yr
Worship	9	0	₦1.9m	₦1.9m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	3	1	₦1.84m	₦1.84m	43%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	3	0	₦255k	₦255k	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	2	0	₦81.3k	₦81.3k	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦756k	₦756k	39%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	13,294	613	₦243m	₦242m	13%	7.6 yr
50 100m2	10,886	430	₦853m	₦852m	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	10,010	320	₦385m	₦385m	19%	5.6 yr
100 250m2	4,335	320	₦2.04bn	₦1.84bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	618	140	₦3.38bn	₦3.29bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	12	3	₦943m	₦943m	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	38,201	1,711	₦6.3bn	₦6.14bn	21%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	628	78	₦1.27bn	₦1.14bn	27%	3.9 yr
Urban	326	37	₦269m	₦269m	31%	3.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	26,254	479	₦1.33bn	₦1.33bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Formal	5,022	4	₦169m	₦169m	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	4,959	306	₦68.5m	₦68.5m	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Small	1,713	381	₦789m	₦789m	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	542	228	₦3.86bn	₦3.58bn	33%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	258	254	₦55.5m	₦55.5m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	103	103	₦270m	₦270m	59%	1.9 yr
Institutional	73	19	₦973m	₦973m	33%	3.4 yr
School	46	12	₦18.2m	₦18.2m	47%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	45	14	₦40.3m	₦40.3m	49%	2.1 yr
Unknown	41	10	₦31.7m	₦31.7m	33%	3.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	17	3	₦181m	₦166m	33%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	39,155	1,826	₦7.84bn	₦7.55bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	38,908	1,687	₦6.41bn	₦6.13bn	21%	4.9 yr
SME High	124	106	₦280m	₦280m	59%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	123	33	₦1.15bn	₦1.13bn	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	11,666	383	₦1.01bn	₦881m
3.0	11,397	614	₦4.65bn	₦4.49bn
4.0	9,293	167	₦1.93bn	₦1.93bn
1.0	3,594	402	₦155m	₦155m
0.0	3,203	258	₦51.2m	₦51.2m
5.0	2	2	₦36.2m	₦36.2m