Jigawa State

Rooftop solar in Gumel, Jigawa: what the roofs are worth

Gumel has 47,149 buildings with a viable rooftop and 602 MWp of roof capacity. 29% run a generator, and together they spend ₦44.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

47,149

Usable roof area

2.69 km²

602 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦44.4bn/yr

32.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.6 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gumel

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦44.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦41.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.21tn

NPV₦328bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.6 yr

Unlocked energy30.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity111 MWp

Capex₦116bn

Year-one energy value₦86.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.02tn

NPV₦662bn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Gumel's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 111 MWp
Capital cost: ₦116bn
Year 1 savings: ₦86.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦662bn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gumel pays back quickly

Of the 46,784 buildings in Gumel with a modelled payback, 72.7% pay back inside five years and 28.7% inside three.

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How much of Gumel's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gumel consume 97.8 GWh/yr but want 129 GWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gumel

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gumel actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 46,784 buildings with a modelled result out of 47,149 in Gumel. 36,988 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,409 (29%)

Under 5 years34,012 (73%)

Under 7 years37,012 (79%)

Under 10 years39,044 (83%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%38,536 (82%)

Above 15%36,988 (78%)

Above 20%34,987 (74%)

Above 25%31,127 (66%)

CO₂ avoided

79.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

17.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

30.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

134k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gumel.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gumel

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	26,622	7,701	₦26.1bn	₦23.9bn	31%	3.4 yr
C	7,458	1,148	₦3.92bn	₦3.69bn	19%	5.6 yr
D	5,361	980	₦3.46bn	₦3.35bn	7%	13.6 yr
B	4,235	3,495	₦9.86bn	₦9.8bn	59%	1.9 yr
E	3,473	143	₦1.02bn	₦977m	7%	15.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	46,811	13,270	₦26.8bn	₦26.6bn	29%	3.6 yr
Anchor	263	148	₦17.2bn	₦14.7bn	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial General	62	44	₦416m	₦395m	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	4	0	₦212k	₦212k	19%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	4	2	₦3.6m	₦3.6m	39%	2.6 yr
Industrial	3	3	₦3.79m	₦2.4m	97%	1.1 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦802k	₦802k	39%	2.9 yr
Worship	1	0	₦79.6k	₦79.6k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	18,829	3,752	₦562m	₦559m	17%	5.9 yr
30 50m2	10,240	3,279	₦832m	₦832m	29%	3.6 yr
50 100m2	10,021	3,149	₦1.92bn	₦1.91bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	5,424	1,975	₦5.12bn	₦5.11bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,139	1,110	₦14.2bn	₦13.9bn	53%	2.1 yr
Over 1000m2	496	202	₦21.8bn	₦19.4bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	29,351	10,143	₦33.7bn	₦31.4bn	31%	3.4 yr
Urban	7,944	1,406	₦4.68bn	₦4.63bn	15%	6.4 yr
Rural	5,637	1,367	₦2.47bn	₦2.34bn	17%	5.6 yr
Unclassified	4,217	551	₦3.56bn	₦3.35bn	7%	14.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	23,090	8,271	₦19.5bn	₦19.5bn	31%	3.4 yr
Shed	18,281	3,960	₦678m	₦678m	23%	4.9 yr
Residential	2,841	580	₦5.94bn	₦5.74bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Small	2,599	459	₦655m	₦655m	29%	3.9 yr
Institutional	210	107	₦16.8bn	₦14.3bn	35%	3.1 yr
Educational Facility	59	47	₦188m	₦188m	71%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	22	19	₦459m	₦403m	59%	1.9 yr
Unknown	20	10	₦190m	₦186m	35%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	4	0	₦212k	₦212k	19%	3.4 yr
School	4	3	₦6.18m	₦6.18m	89%	1.1 yr
Educational Facility - Tertiary	3	2	₦5.07m	₦5.07m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial	2	0	₦242k	₦242k	37%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	47,125	13,467	₦44.4bn	₦41.7bn
Farmland	24	0	₦513k	₦513k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	46,880	13,316	₦27.2bn	₦27bn	29%	3.6 yr
Enterprise	265	150	₦17.2bn	₦14.7bn	43%	2.4 yr
SME High	4	1	₦4.92m	₦4.92m	39%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	15,620	4,647	₦3.42bn	₦3.28bn
0.0	13,254	2,227	₦359m	₦359m
1.0	7,934	2,242	₦575m	₦575m
3.0	6,784	2,684	₦12.8bn	₦12.7bn
4.0	3,555	1,666	₦27.2bn	₦24.8bn
5.0	1	0	₦564k	₦564k
6.0	1	1	₦2.93m	₦2.93m