Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Delta State: buildings, spend and payback

1,354,749 buildings in Delta State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦1.63tn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 46% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

1,354,749

Usable roof area

167 km²

37.6 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦1.63tn/yr

1.35 TWh/yr from generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Delta

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦1.63tn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦1.56tn

Lifetime cash saved₦80.7tn

NPV₦11.8tn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy862 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity4.3 GWp

Capex₦4.28tn

Year-one energy value₦2.91tn

Lifetime energy value₦136tn

NPV₦21.9tn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Delta State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 4.3 GWp
Capital cost: ₦4.28tn
Year 1 savings: ₦2.91tn/yr
NPV: ₦21.9tn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Delta State pays back quickly

Of the 1,341,434 buildings in Delta State with a modelled payback, 76.7% pay back inside five years and 39.2% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

76.7%

Payback under 3 years

39.2%

IRR above 20%

79.2%

Under 3 years · 39%3 – 5 years · 37%5 – 7 years · 11%7 – 10 years · 6%Over 10 years · 7%

Coverage: 99% of buildings in Delta State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Delta State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Delta State consume 2.71 TWh/yr but want 3.57 TWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 76%Suppressed · 24%

Energy wanted

3.57 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

2.71 TWh/yr

Unmet demand

862 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Delta State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 1,341,434 buildings with a modelled result out of 1,354,749 in Delta State. 1,177,842 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years526,007 (39%)

Under 5 years1,028,583 (77%)

Under 7 years1,176,391 (88%)

Under 10 years1,252,076 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%1,241,559 (92%)

Above 15%1,177,842 (87%)

Above 20%1,073,323 (79%)

Above 25%710,621 (52%)

Electricity billing bands in Delta State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Delta State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	393,127	188,279	₦361bn	₦350bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	294,742	154,550	₦385bn	₦374bn	35%	3.1 yr
A	287,547	111,549	₦256bn	₦249bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	224,227	89,709	₦380bn	₦354bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	155,106	76,440	₦245bn	₦234bn	29%	3.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	1,302,685	589,640	₦1.26tn	₦1.21tn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	23,641	14,288	₦157bn	₦155bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	9,915	5,558	₦3.22bn	₦3.22bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	9,143	5,815	₦169bn	₦160bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	7,065	4,141	₦14.5bn	₦14.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	1,028	391	₦9.69bn	₦8.97bn	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial	772	514	₦7.62bn	₦7.38bn	49%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	218	69	₦359m	₦358m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	153	55	₦1.05bn	₦1.04bn	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	116	51	₦163m	₦163m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	13	5	₦19.3m	₦19.3m	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	459,692	222,685	₦536bn	₦518bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	247,276	120,386	₦793bn	₦761bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	245,316	104,189	₦13.4bn	₦13.1bn	19%	5.6 yr
50 100m2	243,616	106,194	₦76.1bn	₦72.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	155,141	65,118	₦17.4bn	₦16.6bn	23%	4.9 yr
Over 1000m2	3,708	1,955	₦191bn	₦181bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	673,661	293,510	₦513bn	₦504bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	228,427	126,436	₦340bn	₦332bn	39%	2.6 yr
Urban	223,612	118,845	₦388bn	₦374bn	37%	2.9 yr
Unclassified	161,595	46,436	₦237bn	₦211bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	67,454	35,300	₦149bn	₦141bn	47%	2.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	376,378	149,805	₦116bn	₦115bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	268,891	155,899	₦944bn	₦897bn	47%	2.4 yr
Residential Small	214,752	114,348	₦107bn	₦101bn	37%	2.9 yr
Residential Informal	205,039	71,677	₦75.4bn	₦75.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	187,191	77,102	₦10.9bn	₦10.9bn	21%	5.4 yr
Apartment	36,687	14,890	₦8.11bn	₦8.11bn	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	13,738	5,915	₦3.29bn	₦3.29bn	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	9,753	5,463	₦2.71bn	₦2.71bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	9,032	6,164	₦64.4bn	₦63.2bn	41%	2.6 yr
Institutional	7,091	4,644	₦146bn	₦143bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	6,810	3,609	₦46.9bn	₦46.2bn	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	3,422	2,269	₦18.6bn	₦18.6bn	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	1,336,721	612,150	₦1.54tn	₦1.48tn
Industrial	16,786	7,741	₦81.9bn	₦77.8bn
Retail	1,007	600	₦2.27bn	₦2.22bn
Farmland	129	29	₦36.4m	₦36.4m
Commercial	53	5	₦18.1m	₦18.1m
Orchard	51	0	₦2.82m	₦2.82m
Farmyard	2	2	₦1.94m	₦1.94m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	1,328,111	604,133	₦1.33tn	₦1.28tn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	17,059	10,260	₦118bn	₦115bn	39%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	9,579	6,134	₦175bn	₦166bn	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	485,945	192,300	₦301bn	₦297bn
3.0	457,524	248,513	₦1.13tn	₦1.08tn
0.0	182,791	76,235	₦10.7bn	₦10.7bn
2.0	180,669	83,902	₦94.3bn	₦85.8bn
1.0	37,566	13,904	₦8.26bn	₦7.34bn
5.0	7,234	3,896	₦34.7bn	₦34bn
6.0	3,020	1,777	₦46.4bn	₦44.9bn