Delta State

Rooftop solar in Warri North, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Warri North has 23,436 buildings with a viable rooftop and 486 MWp of roof capacity. 31% run a generator, and together they spend ₦65.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

23,436

Usable roof area

2.17 km²

486 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦65.7bn/yr

51.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Warri North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦65.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦59bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.96tn

NPV₦442bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy26.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity168 MWp

Capex₦173bn

Year-one energy value₦124bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.72tn

NPV₦934bn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Warri North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 168 MWp
Capital cost: ₦173bn
Year 1 savings: ₦124bn/yr
NPV: ₦934bn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Warri North pays back quickly

Of the 22,892 buildings in Warri North with a modelled payback, 71.0% pay back inside five years and 27.4% inside three.

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How much of Warri North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Warri North consume 103 GWh/yr but want 130 GWh/yr. The 20% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Warri North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Warri North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 22,892 buildings with a modelled result out of 23,436 in Warri North. 17,842 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,264 (27%)

Under 5 years16,250 (71%)

Under 7 years17,819 (78%)

Under 10 years18,827 (82%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%18,661 (80%)

Above 15%17,842 (76%)

Above 20%16,601 (71%)

Above 25%8,738 (37%)

CO₂ avoided

103 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

30.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

26.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

412k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Warri North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Warri North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	7,510	606	₦7.51bn	₦4.84bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	5,643	3,338	₦28.6bn	₦27.2bn	45%	2.4 yr
A	5,396	1,375	₦10.4bn	₦9.86bn	25%	4.6 yr
D	2,688	1,044	₦9.45bn	₦7.57bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	2,199	924	₦9.75bn	₦9.55bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	23,021	7,029	₦59.3bn	₦52.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Anchor	216	139	₦5.05bn	₦4.88bn	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	108	76	₦1.12bn	₦1.08bn	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	79	33	₦130m	₦130m	31%	3.4 yr
Industrial	7	6	₦100m	₦100m	47%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	3	3	₦4.6m	₦4.44m	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1	1	₦20.1m	₦20.1m	47%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦2.1m	₦2.1m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
50 100m2	5,754	1,503	₦4.3bn	₦4.02bn	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	5,738	2,424	₦21.2bn	₦20.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	5,285	1,204	₦376m	₦367m	9%	8.4 yr
30 50m2	4,420	965	₦820m	₦810m	19%	5.9 yr
250 1000m2	2,117	1,140	₦32.7bn	₦27.7bn	35%	3.1 yr
Over 1000m2	122	51	₦6.3bn	₦6.05bn	31%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	10,865	1,574	₦23.2bn	₦18.6bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	4,541	1,087	₦9.54bn	₦9.42bn	25%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	4,530	2,844	₦20.6bn	₦19.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Urban	3,500	1,782	₦12.3bn	₦11.5bn	31%	3.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	8,255	1,435	₦223m	₦223m	9%	9.6 yr
Residential Small	6,943	2,051	₦6.47bn	₦6.17bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	5,938	2,332	₦47.9bn	₦41.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,220	696	₦4.17bn	₦4.17bn	33%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	583	465	₦484m	₦484m	39%	2.6 yr
Institutional	167	99	₦4.71bn	₦4.6bn	39%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	78	50	₦509m	₦509m	67%	1.6 yr
Apartment	72	43	₦37.9m	₦37.9m	35%	2.9 yr
School	53	37	₦327m	₦327m	65%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	29	13	₦15.2m	₦15.2m	33%	3.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	27	19	₦457m	₦374m	49%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	22	11	₦7.38m	₦7.38m	33%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	21,182	6,565	₦56bn	₦51.1bn
Industrial	2,254	722	₦9.72bn	₦7.94bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	23,210	7,139	₦60.5bn	₦54bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	223	145	₦5.15bn	₦4.98bn	49%	2.1 yr
SME High	3	3	₦4.6m	₦4.44m	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	8,220	3,779	₦56bn	₦49.6bn
0.0	8,006	1,383	₦211m	₦211m
2.0	4,079	980	₦3.12bn	₦3.01bn
1.0	1,766	285	₦783m	₦541m
4.0	1,365	860	₦5.61bn	₦5.58bn