Delta State

Rooftop solar in Ethiope West, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Ethiope West has 67,573 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.84 GWp of roof capacity. 56% run a generator, and together they spend ₦75.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

67,573

Usable roof area

8.16 km²

1.84 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦75.1bn/yr

65.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

2.9 yr

Median IRR 37% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ethiope West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦75.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦73.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.82tn

NPV₦562bn

Median IRR37%

Median payback2.9 yr

Unlocked energy41.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity198 MWp

Capex₦193bn

Year-one energy value₦133bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.22tn

NPV₦1.01tn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ethiope West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 198 MWp
Capital cost: ₦193bn
Year 1 savings: ₦133bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.01tn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ethiope West pays back quickly

Of the 67,250 buildings in Ethiope West with a modelled payback, 81.6% pay back inside five years and 51.3% inside three.

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How much of Ethiope West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ethiope West consume 125 GWh/yr but want 167 GWh/yr. The 25% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ethiope West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ethiope West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 67,250 buildings with a modelled result out of 67,573 in Ethiope West. 61,050 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years34,507 (51%)

Under 5 years54,871 (82%)

Under 7 years60,976 (91%)

Under 10 years64,053 (95%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%63,663 (94%)

Above 15%61,050 (90%)

Above 20%56,641 (84%)

Above 25%40,577 (60%)

CO₂ avoided

129 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

36.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

41.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

210k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ethiope West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ethiope West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	32,907	17,607	₦33.9bn	₦33.2bn	35%	3.1 yr
B	22,807	14,645	₦25bn	₦24.4bn	41%	2.6 yr
E	9,836	4,417	₦11.9bn	₦11.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	2,018	1,208	₦4.27bn	₦4.24bn	57%	1.9 yr
A	5	0	₦7.85k	₦7.85k	5%	16.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	63,734	35,517	₦53.4bn	₦52.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	2,084	1,351	₦12.2bn	₦12.1bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1,217	587	₦225m	₦225m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	323	251	₦8.43bn	₦7.97bn	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	134	110	₦286m	₦286m	45%	2.4 yr
Industrial	60	45	₦212m	₦211m	51%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	18	13	₦299m	₦266m	47%	1.9 yr
Mall Retail	2	2	₦1.15m	₦1.15m	47%	2.1 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦1.23m	₦1.23m	39%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	23,590	13,578	₦22.9bn	₦22.3bn	39%	2.6 yr
Under 30m2	13,937	7,345	₦813m	₦804m	27%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	11,963	7,332	₦37.4bn	₦36.9bn	43%	2.6 yr
50 100m2	11,243	5,821	₦2.89bn	₦2.88bn	35%	3.1 yr
30 50m2	6,692	3,679	₦745m	₦741m	35%	3.1 yr
Over 1000m2	148	122	₦10.3bn	₦9.86bn	53%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	43,349	25,642	₦43.8bn	₦43bn	37%	2.9 yr
Urban	13,208	6,605	₦16.3bn	₦16.1bn	33%	3.1 yr
Unclassified	6,121	2,341	₦8.26bn	₦7.71bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	3,609	2,727	₦5.55bn	₦5.54bn	49%	2.1 yr
Rural	1,286	562	₦1.16bn	₦1.15bn	33%	3.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	22,093	10,320	₦7.18bn	₦7.16bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	10,977	6,589	₦31.6bn	₦31bn	59%	1.9 yr
Residential Informal	10,592	8,162	₦10bn	₦10bn	45%	2.4 yr
Shed	8,556	4,686	₦614m	₦614m	41%	2.6 yr
Residential Small	8,112	4,362	₦3.35bn	₦3.05bn	55%	1.9 yr
Apartment	2,107	755	₦298m	₦298m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	1,297	643	₦374m	₦374m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial	1,279	968	₦8.33bn	₦8.29bn	45%	2.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,218	588	₦226m	₦226m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	507	168	₦1.92bn	₦1.91bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	239	190	₦6.91bn	₦6.84bn	43%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	130	99	₦859m	₦859m	61%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	67,110	37,648	₦73.6bn	₦72.1bn
Industrial	457	229	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn
Orchard	6	0	₦420k	₦420k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	65,432	36,464	₦56.2bn	₦55.2bn	37%	2.9 yr
SME High	1,794	1,143	₦10.3bn	₦10.3bn	41%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	347	270	₦8.5bn	₦8.04bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	27,384	14,415	₦21.9bn	₦21.5bn
3.0	19,983	12,293	₦40.6bn	₦40.1bn
2.0	8,692	4,909	₦3.8bn	₦3.3bn
0.0	8,535	4,670	₦612m	₦612m
1.0	1,613	742	₦250m	₦248m
5.0	1,013	593	₦3.44bn	₦3.42bn
6.0	353	255	₦4.42bn	₦4.41bn