Delta State

Rooftop solar in Ika North East, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Ika North East has 68,948 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.72 GWp of roof capacity. 25% run a generator, and together they spend ₦28.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

68,948

Usable roof area

7.64 km²

1.72 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦28.8bn/yr

22.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ika North East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦28.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦28.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.57tn

NPV₦222bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy29.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity133 MWp

Capex₦135bn

Year-one energy value₦98.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.67tn

NPV₦762bn

Median IRR73%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ika North East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 133 MWp
Capital cost: ₦135bn
Year 1 savings: ₦98.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦762bn
Median IRR: 73%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ika North East pays back quickly

Of the 68,500 buildings in Ika North East with a modelled payback, 69.8% pay back inside five years and 22.3% inside three.

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How much of Ika North East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ika North East consume 56.7 GWh/yr but want 86.6 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ika North East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ika North East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 68,500 buildings with a modelled result out of 68,948 in Ika North East. 58,735 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,306 (22%)

Under 5 years47,790 (70%)

Under 7 years58,660 (86%)

Under 10 years63,405 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%62,666 (91%)

Above 15%58,735 (85%)

Above 20%50,816 (74%)

Above 25%28,497 (41%)

CO₂ avoided

57.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

29.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

245k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ika North East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ika North East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	24,926	7,970	₦7.03bn	₦6.97bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	16,110	4,606	₦6.61bn	₦6.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	14,536	3,478	₦9.4bn	₦9.33bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	12,549	1,240	₦5.58bn	₦5.56bn	21%	5.4 yr
A	827	217	₦187m	₦174m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	67,140	16,611	₦20.9bn	₦20.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	911	431	₦2.69bn	₦2.67bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	281	166	₦4.33bn	₦4.3bn	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	280	158	₦433m	₦433m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	267	112	₦38.8m	₦38.8m	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	46	23	₦132m	₦132m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	13	5	₦203m	₦171m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	7	3	₦52.4m	₦52.4m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	2	1	₦2.21m	₦2.21m	35%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦9.8m	₦9.8m	57%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	28,180	7,322	₦10.6bn	₦10.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	13,064	2,760	₦1.19bn	₦1.19bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	11,796	2,854	₦265m	₦265m	15%	6.6 yr
250 1000m2	8,530	2,816	₦12.5bn	₦12.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	7,279	1,709	₦304m	₦304m	19%	5.6 yr
Over 1000m2	99	50	₦3.94bn	₦3.88bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	37,747	11,555	₦12.8bn	₦12.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	14,571	2,097	₦5.25bn	₦5.24bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	11,995	2,793	₦7.1bn	₦7.05bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	4,483	1,061	₦3.68bn	₦3.63bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	152	5	₦20.5m	₦20.5m	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	22,189	5,579	₦3.47bn	₦3.47bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	14,360	3,861	₦14bn	₦13.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	12,730	2,735	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	8,680	1,615	₦208m	₦208m	17%	6.4 yr
Residential Informal	4,436	1,455	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	3,611	1,048	₦537m	₦537m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	1,134	318	₦161m	₦161m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial	550	213	₦1.27bn	₦1.26bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	271	159	₦4.02bn	₦4.02bn	37%	2.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	268	113	₦39m	₦39m	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	120	69	₦278m	₦276m	31%	3.4 yr
Worship Center	114	62	₦47.6m	₦47.6m	39%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	68,930	17,504	₦28.8bn	₦28.6bn
Retail	18	7	₦12.2m	₦12.2m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	68,033	17,065	₦22.7bn	₦22.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	616	268	₦1.65bn	₦1.63bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	299	178	₦4.41bn	₦4.38bn	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	28,263	7,379	₦6.82bn	₦6.8bn
3.0	24,076	6,323	₦19.1bn	₦19bn
0.0	8,528	1,616	₦206m	₦206m
2.0	6,580	1,744	₦1.51bn	₦1.46bn
1.0	1,029	270	₦101m	₦101m
5.0	425	162	₦835m	₦790m
6.0	47	17	₦250m	₦250m