Delta State

Rooftop solar in Ethiope East, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Ethiope East has 61,232 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.79 GWp of roof capacity. 53% run a generator, and together they spend ₦79.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

61,232

Usable roof area

7.95 km²

1.79 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦79.1bn/yr

67.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

2.9 yr

Median IRR 37% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ethiope East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦79.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦78.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.03tn

NPV₦599bn

Median IRR37%

Median payback2.9 yr

Unlocked energy35.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity182 MWp

Capex₦189bn

Year-one energy value₦140bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.64tn

NPV₦1.09tn

Median IRR79%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ethiope East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 182 MWp
Capital cost: ₦189bn
Year 1 savings: ₦140bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.09tn
Median IRR: 79%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ethiope East pays back quickly

Of the 60,892 buildings in Ethiope East with a modelled payback, 83.0% pay back inside five years and 51.0% inside three.

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How much of Ethiope East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ethiope East consume 113 GWh/yr but want 148 GWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ethiope East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ethiope East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 60,892 buildings with a modelled result out of 61,232 in Ethiope East. 56,204 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years31,036 (51%)

Under 5 years50,542 (83%)

Under 7 years56,154 (92%)

Under 10 years58,291 (96%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%58,011 (95%)

Above 15%56,204 (92%)

Above 20%52,288 (85%)

Above 25%34,496 (56%)

CO₂ avoided

134 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

42.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

35.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

270k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ethiope East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ethiope East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	27,384	16,160	₦33.7bn	₦33.6bn	41%	2.6 yr
D	14,304	9,653	₦24.4bn	₦24.1bn	49%	2.1 yr
B	11,449	2,978	₦6.87bn	₦6.86bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	7,739	3,643	₦13.7bn	₦13.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	356	245	₦343m	₦343m	37%	2.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	60,380	32,010	₦68.6bn	₦68.1bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	354	290	₦6.18bn	₦5.86bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	306	247	₦3.49bn	₦3.46bn	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	110	80	₦210m	₦210m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	39	29	₦16.3m	₦16.3m	49%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	30	16	₦436m	₦429m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	8	6	₦78.1m	₦76.3m	49%	1.9 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦2.56m	₦2.56m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	2	1	₦4.98m	₦4.98m	31%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦703k	₦703k	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	22,888	12,933	₦26.1bn	₦26bn	41%	2.6 yr
250 1000m2	11,440	6,345	₦42bn	₦41.5bn	41%	2.6 yr
50 100m2	10,535	5,525	₦3.01bn	₦3.01bn	37%	2.9 yr
Under 30m2	10,103	4,721	₦573m	₦573m	21%	4.9 yr
30 50m2	6,094	3,049	₦671m	₦671m	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	172	106	₦6.65bn	₦6.42bn	45%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	21,679	7,778	₦13.5bn	₦13.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	21,393	15,798	₦34.3bn	₦34.2bn	49%	2.1 yr
Urban	9,833	5,813	₦19.1bn	₦18.9bn	55%	1.9 yr
Unclassified	7,501	3,150	₦11.6bn	₦11bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	826	140	₦578m	₦578m	25%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	15,468	7,826	₦6.84bn	₦6.84bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	15,010	10,166	₦53.3bn	₦52.8bn	59%	1.9 yr
Residential Small	9,648	6,252	₦4.47bn	₦4.47bn	57%	1.9 yr
Residential Informal	9,098	2,237	₦2.38bn	₦2.38bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	8,358	4,005	₦624m	₦624m	23%	4.6 yr
Apartment	2,401	1,313	₦849m	₦849m	37%	2.9 yr
Duplex	397	211	₦147m	₦147m	37%	3.1 yr
Institutional	238	197	₦5.51bn	₦5.29bn	45%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	151	122	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn	65%	1.6 yr
School	114	90	₦429m	₦429m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial	62	62	₦1.53bn	₦1.5bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	46	32	₦42.8m	₦42.8m	43%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	61,232	32,679	₦79.1bn	₦78.1bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	60,773	32,308	₦71.2bn	₦70.7bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	362	296	₦6.25bn	₦5.93bn	57%	1.9 yr
SME High	97	75	₦1.57bn	₦1.54bn	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	23,093	10,675	₦13.7bn	₦13.7bn
3.0	22,598	14,706	₦61.1bn	₦60.3bn
0.0	7,904	3,983	₦616m	₦616m
2.0	6,254	2,939	₦3.07bn	₦2.99bn
1.0	1,362	359	₦177m	₦177m
5.0	11	8	₦94.4m	₦94.4m
6.0	10	9	₦302m	₦302m