Delta State

Rooftop solar in Ika South, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Ika South has 78,791 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.99 GWp of roof capacity. 41% run a generator, and together they spend ₦46bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

78,791

Usable roof area

8.86 km²

1.99 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦46bn/yr

38.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ika South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦46bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦45.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.48tn

NPV₦354bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy46 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity183 MWp

Capex₦170bn

Year-one energy value₦112bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.25tn

NPV₦843bn

Median IRR67%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ika South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 183 MWp
Capital cost: ₦170bn
Year 1 savings: ₦112bn/yr
NPV: ₦843bn
Median IRR: 67%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ika South pays back quickly

Of the 77,511 buildings in Ika South with a modelled payback, 68.9% pay back inside five years and 36.3% inside three.

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How much of Ika South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ika South consume 101 GWh/yr but want 147 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ika South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ika South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 77,511 buildings with a modelled result out of 78,791 in Ika South. 63,857 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years28,172 (36%)

Under 5 years53,383 (69%)

Under 7 years63,773 (82%)

Under 10 years70,368 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%69,306 (88%)

Above 15%63,857 (81%)

Above 20%56,138 (71%)

Above 25%38,561 (49%)

CO₂ avoided

89.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

17.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

46 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

157k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ika South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ika South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	23,899	13,906	₦20.5bn	₦20.2bn	35%	3.1 yr
E	22,225	6,188	₦8.24bn	₦8.17bn	23%	4.9 yr
C	21,958	8,877	₦10bn	₦9.97bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	9,285	2,154	₦3.19bn	₦3.18bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	1,424	924	₦4.06bn	₦4bn	33%	3.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	73,594	28,600	₦21.7bn	₦21.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	2,937	1,895	₦18.2bn	₦18.1bn	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1,660	1,122	₦453m	₦453m	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	351	273	₦5.3bn	₦5.03bn	53%	1.9 yr
Worship	192	125	₦261m	₦261m	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	30	21	₦64.1m	₦64.1m	53%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	12	9	₦66m	₦62.5m	41%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	7	2	₦5.53m	₦5.53m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	5	1	₦1.32m	₦1.32m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	3	1	₦2.79m	₦2.79m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	29,069	11,428	₦14.7bn	₦14.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	17,379	6,759	₦726m	₦682m	17%	6.1 yr
50 100m2	11,849	4,260	₦1.61bn	₦1.61bn	23%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	11,697	6,111	₦23.4bn	₦23.1bn	35%	3.1 yr
30 50m2	8,666	3,409	₦599m	₦599m	19%	5.6 yr
Over 1000m2	131	82	₦5.05bn	₦4.9bn	45%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	36,021	18,379	₦25.8bn	₦25.6bn	29%	3.4 yr
Urban	26,266	10,142	₦13.6bn	₦13.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	10,086	1,763	₦1.64bn	₦1.64bn	23%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	5,342	1,625	₦4.48bn	₦4.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	1,076	140	₦495m	₦495m	9%	8.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	18,969	6,520	₦2.88bn	₦2.83bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	16,344	6,125	₦13.6bn	₦13.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	12,558	4,181	₦1.43bn	₦1.43bn	21%	5.1 yr
Shed	11,290	4,278	₦488m	₦488m	19%	5.9 yr
Residential Informal	11,251	6,349	₦2.9bn	₦2.9bn	33%	3.1 yr
Apartment	2,349	891	₦326m	₦325m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial	1,785	1,111	₦10.8bn	₦10.7bn	39%	2.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,661	1,122	₦452m	₦452m	39%	2.9 yr
Duplex	833	256	₦77.9m	₦77.9m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	711	459	₦5.25bn	₦5.19bn	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	273	210	₦3.95bn	₦3.92bn	45%	2.4 yr
Unknown	199	139	₦648m	₦648m	37%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	78,757	32,049	₦46bn	₦45.5bn
Retail	34	0	₦453k	₦453k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	75,897	30,177	₦24.6bn	₦24.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	2,518	1,581	₦16.1bn	₦16bn	39%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	376	291	₦5.35bn	₦5.09bn	53%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	27,810	11,543	₦10.1bn	₦9.96bn
3.0	27,325	10,871	₦18.8bn	₦18.6bn
0.0	10,920	4,020	₦467m	₦467m
2.0	9,064	3,582	₦1.33bn	₦1.33bn
1.0	1,532	647	₦88.9m	₦88.7m
5.0	1,403	861	₦5.69bn	₦5.69bn
6.0	737	525	₦9.49bn	₦9.39bn