Delta State

Rooftop solar in Sapele, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Sapele has 65,773 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.11 GWp of roof capacity. 59% run a generator, and together they spend ₦93.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

65,773

Usable roof area

9.37 km²

2.11 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦93.1bn/yr

75.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.1 yr

Median IRR 35% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Sapele

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦93.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦91.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.78tn

NPV₦677bn

Median IRR35%

Median payback3.1 yr

Unlocked energy54.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity260 MWp

Capex₦256bn

Year-one energy value₦160bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.47tn

NPV₦1.18tn

Median IRR59%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Sapele's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 260 MWp
Capital cost: ₦256bn
Year 1 savings: ₦160bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.18tn
Median IRR: 59%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Sapele pays back quickly

Of the 65,561 buildings in Sapele with a modelled payback, 85.7% pay back inside five years and 46.3% inside three.

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How much of Sapele's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Sapele consume 169 GWh/yr but want 223 GWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Sapele

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Sapele actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 65,561 buildings with a modelled result out of 65,773 in Sapele. 61,372 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years30,383 (46%)

Under 5 years56,182 (86%)

Under 7 years61,323 (94%)

Under 10 years63,584 (97%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%63,310 (96%)

Above 15%61,372 (93%)

Above 20%57,853 (88%)

Above 25%40,403 (61%)

CO₂ avoided

164 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

43 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

54.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

288k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Sapele.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Sapele

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	32,997	23,214	₦60.2bn	₦58.5bn	41%	2.6 yr
A	22,639	10,824	₦16.2bn	₦16.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	5,408	2,255	₦6.26bn	₦6.06bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	3,084	1,731	₦8.33bn	₦8.28bn	53%	1.9 yr
D	1,645	826	₦2.24bn	₦2.23bn	35%	2.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	62,678	36,771	₦68.9bn	₦67.5bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial General	1,596	1,152	₦12.2bn	₦12bn	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	605	401	₦230m	₦230m	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	571	342	₦9.93bn	₦9.7bn	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	114	62	₦164m	₦164m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	101	49	₦1.14bn	₦1.01bn	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	86	63	₦567m	₦560m	49%	2.1 yr
Mall Retail	9	7	₦66.5m	₦63m	39%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	8	1	₦3.67m	₦3.67m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	5	2	₦4.59m	₦4.59m	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	20,276	12,278	₦23.7bn	₦23.4bn	37%	3.1 yr
250 1000m2	16,755	10,348	₦51.4bn	₦50.7bn	37%	3.1 yr
50 100m2	10,938	6,180	₦3.87bn	₦3.39bn	33%	3.1 yr
Under 30m2	10,681	5,992	₦700m	₦692m	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	6,887	3,889	₦965m	₦836m	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	236	163	₦12.5bn	₦12.2bn	43%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	50,141	30,893	₦66.8bn	₦65.8bn	35%	3.1 yr
Urban	6,614	4,030	₦12.3bn	₦12.3bn	49%	2.1 yr
Unclassified	5,335	2,008	₦7.61bn	₦6.96bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	2,455	1,003	₦4.44bn	₦4.13bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	1,228	916	₦2.04bn	₦2.04bn	69%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	23,898	14,230	₦14bn	₦13.7bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	12,583	5,828	₦6.69bn	₦6.69bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	9,932	7,037	₦42.7bn	₦41.9bn	55%	1.9 yr
Residential Small	6,679	4,143	₦3.66bn	₦3.33bn	45%	2.4 yr
Shed	6,013	3,287	₦510m	₦510m	39%	2.9 yr
Apartment	2,755	1,735	₦957m	₦957m	35%	3.1 yr
Duplex	818	511	₦322m	₦322m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial	788	678	₦6.43bn	₦6.42bn	47%	2.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	601	399	₦224m	₦224m	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	327	210	₦2.81bn	₦2.65bn	47%	2.4 yr
Institutional	317	195	₦8.87bn	₦8.69bn	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	240	142	₦1.25bn	₦1.25bn	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	64,105	37,815	₦82.9bn	₦81.2bn
Industrial	1,637	1,005	₦9.53bn	₦9.21bn
Retail	30	30	₦750m	₦709m
Orchard	1	0	₦18.2k	₦18.2k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	63,986	37,569	₦73.1bn	₦71.6bn	33%	3.1 yr
SME High	1,189	922	₦9.82bn	₦9.58bn	47%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	598	359	₦10.2bn	₦9.95bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	34,813	19,248	₦29.6bn	₦29.3bn
3.0	18,894	12,708	₦53.5bn	₦52.3bn
0.0	5,853	3,271	₦506m	₦506m
2.0	4,664	2,713	₦2.42bn	₦2.22bn
1.0	936	441	₦175m	₦171m
5.0	372	295	₦2.68bn	₦2.6bn
6.0	241	174	₦4.25bn	₦4.09bn