Delta State

Rooftop solar in Oshimili South, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Oshimili South has 63,619 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.87 GWp of roof capacity. 41% run a generator, and together they spend ₦58.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

63,619

Usable roof area

8.32 km²

1.87 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦58.6bn/yr

42.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Oshimili South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦58.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦55.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.06tn

NPV₦426bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy59.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity223 MWp

Capex₦207bn

Year-one energy value₦118bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.45tn

NPV₦848bn

Median IRR59%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Oshimili South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 223 MWp
Capital cost: ₦207bn
Year 1 savings: ₦118bn/yr
NPV: ₦848bn
Median IRR: 59%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Oshimili South pays back quickly

Of the 63,140 buildings in Oshimili South with a modelled payback, 76.7% pay back inside five years and 28.2% inside three.

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How much of Oshimili South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Oshimili South consume 139 GWh/yr but want 198 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Oshimili South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Oshimili South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 63,140 buildings with a modelled result out of 63,619 in Oshimili South. 56,179 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years17,779 (28%)

Under 5 years48,421 (77%)

Under 7 years56,119 (89%)

Under 10 years60,007 (95%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%59,555 (94%)

Above 15%56,179 (88%)

Above 20%51,033 (80%)

Above 25%41,588 (65%)

CO₂ avoided

115 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

20.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

59.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

155k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Oshimili South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Oshimili South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	36,127	9,479	₦22.4bn	₦22.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	19,779	12,598	₦22bn	₦20.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
C	3,879	2,042	₦6.08bn	₦5.74bn	37%	2.9 yr
E	2,450	1,333	₦6.14bn	₦5.44bn	69%	1.6 yr
D	1,384	392	₦1.94bn	₦1.86bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	58,901	23,320	₦30.9bn	₦28.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	2,578	1,448	₦14.5bn	₦14.1bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,069	644	₦311m	₦311m	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	499	204	₦10.6bn	₦10.3bn	43%	2.6 yr
Worship	274	116	₦277m	₦277m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	185	57	₦1.53bn	₦1.44bn	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial	34	30	₦122m	₦121m	49%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	33	9	₦52.1m	₦52.1m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	23	9	₦275m	₦275m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	18	6	₦26.4m	₦26.4m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	5	1	₦9.85m	₦9.85m	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	20,011	8,501	₦16.7bn	₦15.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	12,770	5,332	₦23.2bn	₦22bn	25%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	12,546	5,074	₦3.16bn	₦3.01bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	9,948	3,718	₦477m	₦477m	17%	5.9 yr
30 50m2	8,073	3,113	₦785m	₦782m	23%	4.9 yr
Over 1000m2	271	106	₦14.3bn	₦13.7bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	54,911	22,050	₦42.2bn	₦40.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	5,390	1,863	₦10.3bn	₦9.65bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	3,030	1,689	₦4.77bn	₦4.56bn	43%	2.4 yr
Rural	288	242	₦1.28bn	₦1.14bn	71%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	23,926	6,740	₦2.79bn	₦2.79bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	20,473	9,178	₦6.38bn	₦6.38bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	4,768	1,856	₦247m	₦247m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	3,455	2,063	₦17.5bn	₦15.7bn	45%	2.4 yr
Residential Small	3,372	1,985	₦3.2bn	₦2.95bn	47%	2.4 yr
Apartment	2,065	1,081	₦545m	₦545m	27%	3.9 yr
Commercial	1,195	913	₦6.91bn	₦6.65bn	41%	2.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,068	644	₦285m	₦285m	39%	2.9 yr
Duplex	842	417	₦248m	₦248m	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	649	275	₦4.22bn	₦4.2bn	35%	3.1 yr
Unknown	291	106	₦1.39bn	₦1.39bn	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	290	118	₦9.35bn	₦9.21bn	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	62,727	25,231	₦51.7bn	₦49.1bn
Industrial	892	613	₦6.92bn	₦6.73bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	61,091	24,388	₦35.8bn	₦33.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	2,023	1,243	₦12.1bn	₦11.8bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	505	213	₦10.6bn	₦10.4bn	43%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	35,735	14,133	₦19.5bn	₦19.3bn
3.0	13,407	5,939	₦26.3bn	₦24.4bn
2.0	7,076	2,562	₦2.03bn	₦1.72bn
0.0	4,208	1,731	₦227m	₦227m
1.0	1,881	593	₦323m	₦310m
5.0	957	654	₦4.18bn	₦4.17bn
6.0	355	232	₦6.01bn	₦5.71bn