Delta State

Rooftop solar in Aniocha South, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Aniocha South has 60,606 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.56 GWp of roof capacity. 37% run a generator, and together they spend ₦61.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

60,606

Usable roof area

6.92 km²

1.56 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦61.4bn/yr

59.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Aniocha South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦61.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦59.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.07tn

NPV₦468bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy33.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity166 MWp

Capex₦162bn

Year-one energy value₦125bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.87tn

NPV₦971bn

Median IRR83%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Aniocha South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 166 MWp
Capital cost: ₦162bn
Year 1 savings: ₦125bn/yr
NPV: ₦971bn
Median IRR: 83%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Aniocha South pays back quickly

Of the 60,047 buildings in Aniocha South with a modelled payback, 69.1% pay back inside five years and 36.7% inside three.

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How much of Aniocha South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Aniocha South consume 96.8 GWh/yr but want 130 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Aniocha South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Aniocha South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 60,047 buildings with a modelled result out of 60,606 in Aniocha South. 49,813 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years22,008 (37%)

Under 5 years41,518 (69%)

Under 7 years49,749 (83%)

Under 10 years54,349 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%53,550 (88%)

Above 15%49,813 (82%)

Above 20%44,027 (73%)

Above 25%30,418 (50%)

CO₂ avoided

101 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

29.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

33.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

205k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Aniocha South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Aniocha South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	23,760	8,714	₦23.7bn	₦23bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	20,698	8,040	₦23.6bn	₦23bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	15,839	5,583	₦13.8bn	₦13.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	309	196	₦374m	₦374m	43%	2.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	57,906	20,864	₦38.4bn	₦37bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	1,479	971	₦8.87bn	₦8.7bn	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	786	344	₦149m	₦149m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	316	261	₦12.8bn	₦12.6bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	65	56	₦131m	₦131m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	42	30	₦1.06bn	₦1.05bn	55%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	7	5	₦22.2m	₦21.7m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	2	2	₦10.1m	₦10.1m	47%	1.9 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦1.19m	₦1.19m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦53.3k	₦53.3k	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	22,752	8,704	₦17.9bn	₦17.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	11,625	3,772	₦2.07bn	₦1.97bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	10,631	3,549	₦445m	₦444m	13%	6.9 yr
250 1000m2	8,152	4,005	₦25.3bn	₦24.7bn	35%	3.1 yr
30 50m2	7,289	2,395	₦504m	₦504m	19%	5.9 yr
Over 1000m2	157	108	₦15.2bn	₦15bn	61%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	16,995	7,238	₦12.4bn	₦12.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	14,085	6,366	₦22.2bn	₦21.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	12,252	2,700	₦5.88bn	₦5.88bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	11,219	2,735	₦14.1bn	₦13.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	6,055	3,494	₦6.86bn	₦6.77bn	61%	1.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	16,644	4,489	₦3.88bn	₦3.88bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	15,149	7,263	₦30bn	₦29.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	11,961	4,707	₦2.96bn	₦2.55bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	8,825	3,103	₦432m	₦432m	17%	6.4 yr
Apartment	2,762	701	₦534m	₦534m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,881	458	₦463m	₦463m	23%	4.9 yr
Commercial	1,048	674	₦6.54bn	₦6.37bn	43%	2.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	785	342	₦119m	₦119m	33%	3.4 yr
Duplex	676	139	₦94.5m	₦94.5m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	221	184	₦11.8bn	₦11.7bn	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	165	98	₦567m	₦567m	43%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	119	101	₦529m	₦529m	71%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	60,496	22,468	₦57bn	₦55.3bn
Industrial	66	63	₦4.41bn	₦4.41bn
Orchard	42	0	₦2.35m	₦2.35m
Farmyard	2	2	₦1.94m	₦1.94m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	59,027	21,465	₦40.4bn	₦39.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	1,223	778	₦7.16bn	₦6.99bn	43%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	356	290	₦13.9bn	₦13.7bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	23,205	10,723	₦44.6bn	₦43.2bn
4.0	20,556	5,582	₦8.86bn	₦8.71bn
0.0	8,829	3,108	₦440m	₦440m
2.0	5,966	2,281	₦2.6bn	₦2.46bn
1.0	1,282	318	₦151m	₦149m
5.0	575	384	₦2.42bn	₦2.35bn
6.0	193	137	₦2.38bn	₦2.36bn