Delta State

Rooftop solar in Oshimili North, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Oshimili North has 93,701 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.57 GWp of roof capacity. 28% run a generator, and together they spend ₦35.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

93,701

Usable roof area

11.4 km²

2.57 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦35.9bn/yr

27.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Oshimili North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦35.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦35.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.96tn

NPV₦276bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy36.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity153 MWp

Capex₦146bn

Year-one energy value₦93.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.39tn

NPV₦699bn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Oshimili North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 153 MWp
Capital cost: ₦146bn
Year 1 savings: ₦93.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦699bn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Oshimili North pays back quickly

Of the 91,438 buildings in Oshimili North with a modelled payback, 62.5% pay back inside five years and 22.3% inside three.

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How much of Oshimili North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Oshimili North consume 76.7 GWh/yr but want 114 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Oshimili North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Oshimili North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 91,438 buildings with a modelled result out of 93,701 in Oshimili North. 71,715 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years20,361 (22%)

Under 5 years57,125 (62%)

Under 7 years71,571 (78%)

Under 10 years80,548 (88%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%79,300 (85%)

Above 15%71,715 (77%)

Above 20%61,496 (66%)

Above 25%38,190 (41%)

CO₂ avoided

72.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

14.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

36.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

167k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Oshimili North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Oshimili North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	30,577	8,409	₦6.02bn	₦5.96bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	24,528	5,215	₦6.96bn	₦6.92bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	17,022	7,492	₦11.8bn	₦11.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	11,847	2,740	₦5.81bn	₦5.75bn	15%	6.4 yr
D	9,727	2,664	₦5.37bn	₦5.37bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	91,069	25,500	₦22.7bn	₦22.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	1,472	566	₦7.5bn	₦7.45bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	643	211	₦117m	₦117m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	320	178	₦4.76bn	₦4.63bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	86	37	₦136m	₦136m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	65	12	₦572m	₦555m	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial	30	13	₦65.5m	₦65.5m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	6	1	₦13.8m	₦13.8m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	5	1	₦7.61m	₦7.61m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	5	1	₦4.4m	₦4.4m	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	31,751	9,418	₦9.4bn	₦9.37bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	16,950	4,265	₦1.13bn	₦1.13bn	19%	5.6 yr
250 1000m2	16,803	5,691	₦19.4bn	₦19.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	15,588	3,980	₦376m	₦368m	11%	7.6 yr
30 50m2	12,368	3,083	₦444m	₦440m	15%	6.4 yr
Over 1000m2	241	83	₦5.21bn	₦5.16bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	40,089	9,697	₦9.1bn	₦9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	19,551	6,972	₦9.33bn	₦9.28bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	17,685	3,872	₦7.12bn	₦7.11bn	23%	4.9 yr
Urban	15,789	5,608	₦9.62bn	₦9.58bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	587	371	₦756m	₦712m	71%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	37,265	8,468	₦2.84bn	₦2.83bn	23%	4.4 yr
Residential	13,593	5,909	₦16.7bn	₦16.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	11,396	3,099	₦424m	₦424m	19%	5.9 yr
Residential Informal	11,101	2,634	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	10,606	3,645	₦1.22bn	₦1.22bn	23%	4.6 yr
Apartment	5,296	1,273	₦330m	₦330m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	1,812	472	₦110m	₦110m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial	792	327	₦3.8bn	₦3.76bn	35%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	644	211	₦118m	₦118m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	374	132	₦2.37bn	₦2.35bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	202	108	₦3.47bn	₦3.47bn	35%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	120	75	₦629m	₦629m	53%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	93,558	26,442	₦35.6bn	₦35.3bn
Industrial	142	78	₦370m	₦370m
Orchard	1	0	₦35.6k	₦35.6k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	92,153	25,870	₦24.8bn	₦24.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	1,215	468	₦6.38bn	₦6.33bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	333	182	₦4.78bn	₦4.65bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	48,289	11,133	₦9.54bn	₦9.41bn
3.0	23,763	9,329	₦20.1bn	₦20bn
0.0	11,365	3,097	₦423m	₦423m
2.0	7,692	2,348	₦1.18bn	₦1.16bn
1.0	1,670	322	₦135m	₦135m
5.0	575	187	₦1.8bn	₦1.78bn
6.0	347	104	₦2.8bn	₦2.77bn