Delta State

Rooftop solar in Ughelli North, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Ughelli North has 125,923 buildings with a viable rooftop and 3.81 GWp of roof capacity. 54% run a generator, and together they spend ₦131bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

125,923

Usable roof area

16.9 km²

3.81 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦131bn/yr

108 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.4 yr

Median IRR 31% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ughelli North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦131bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦128bn

Lifetime cash saved₦6.64tn

NPV₦940bn

Median IRR31%

Median payback3.4 yr

Unlocked energy64.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity336 MWp

Capex₦338bn

Year-one energy value₦207bn

Lifetime energy value₦9.71tn

NPV₦1.53tn

Median IRR63%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ughelli North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 336 MWp
Capital cost: ₦338bn
Year 1 savings: ₦207bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.53tn
Median IRR: 63%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ughelli North pays back quickly

Of the 125,049 buildings in Ughelli North with a modelled payback, 82.5% pay back inside five years and 43.8% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Ughelli North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ughelli North consume 230 GWh/yr but want 294 GWh/yr. The 22% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Ughelli North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ughelli North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 125,049 buildings with a modelled result out of 125,923 in Ughelli North. 115,220 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years54,732 (44%)

Under 5 years103,222 (83%)

Under 7 years115,100 (92%)

Under 10 years120,587 (96%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%119,984 (95%)

Above 15%115,220 (92%)

Above 20%106,891 (85%)

Above 25%70,389 (56%)

CO₂ avoided

225 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

61.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

64.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

375k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ughelli North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ughelli North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	56,118	28,741	₦41.3bn	₦41bn	27%	3.9 yr
A	37,391	18,367	₦36.5bn	₦35.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	13,052	7,118	₦15.3bn	₦14.7bn	45%	2.4 yr
D	11,624	9,059	₦21.3bn	₦20.6bn	57%	1.9 yr
E	7,738	5,281	₦16.8bn	₦15.9bn	69%	1.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	121,727	65,867	₦100bn	₦98.1bn	29%	3.6 yr
Commercial General	1,599	1,025	₦14bn	₦13.7bn	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	1,105	726	₦2.98bn	₦2.97bn	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	707	483	₦12.1bn	₦11.7bn	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	594	354	₦275m	₦275m	43%	2.6 yr
Industrial	81	55	₦391m	₦385m	51%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	80	44	₦1.01bn	₦919m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	15	5	₦13.1m	₦13.1m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	9	4	₦14.9m	₦14.9m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	5	3	₦7.71m	₦7.18m	43%	2.6 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦1.19m	₦1.19m	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	42,239	24,468	₦43.1bn	₦42.1bn	35%	3.1 yr
250 1000m2	29,433	14,847	₦67.9bn	₦66.8bn	29%	3.9 yr
Under 30m2	21,277	11,131	₦1.29bn	₦1.28bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	20,147	11,228	₦5.72bn	₦5.43bn	33%	3.1 yr
30 50m2	12,565	6,760	₦1.94bn	₦1.47bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	262	132	₦11.4bn	₦11.1bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	74,651	35,260	₦50.9bn	₦50.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	21,593	14,285	₦34.9bn	₦34.1bn	47%	2.4 yr
Dense Urban	12,316	9,317	₦14.9bn	₦14.8bn	45%	2.4 yr
Unclassified	12,169	5,756	₦20.5bn	₦19.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	5,194	3,948	₦10.1bn	₦9.63bn	59%	1.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	46,060	22,372	₦18.7bn	₦18.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	24,568	17,200	₦67.7bn	₦66.4bn	47%	2.4 yr
Residential Small	17,899	12,653	₦8.08bn	₦7.13bn	45%	2.4 yr
Residential Informal	15,305	4,071	₦3.43bn	₦3.43bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	12,687	6,883	₦954m	₦954m	35%	3.1 yr
Apartment	4,240	2,168	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	27%	4.1 yr
Duplex	968	520	₦275m	₦275m	27%	3.9 yr
Institutional	753	519	₦12.6bn	₦12.4bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	670	415	₦6.91bn	₦6.74bn	53%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	598	355	₦282m	₦282m	43%	2.6 yr
Worship Center	419	270	₦523m	₦523m	41%	2.6 yr
Place Of Worship	342	223	₦372m	₦372m	41%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	125,333	68,266	₦128bn	₦125bn
Industrial	542	300	₦3.66bn	₦3.55bn
Commercial	25	0	₦13.8m	₦13.8m
Farmland	18	0	₦950k	₦950k
Retail	5	0	₦196k	₦196k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	124,273	67,455	₦109bn	₦107bn	31%	3.4 yr
SME High	899	593	₦9.76bn	₦9.47bn	51%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	751	518	₦12.3bn	₦11.9bn	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	55,617	26,142	₦38.5bn	₦38.2bn
3.0	42,064	27,622	₦81.9bn	₦80.1bn
2.0	13,004	6,659	₦5.66bn	₦4.91bn
0.0	12,461	6,871	₦950m	₦950m
1.0	2,510	1,189	₦498m	₦478m
5.0	179	56	₦1.83bn	₦1.75bn
6.0	88	27	₦1.86bn	₦1.67bn