Delta State

Rooftop solar in Warri South, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Warri South has 76,551 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.49 GWp of roof capacity. 41% run a generator, and together they spend ₦112bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

76,551

Usable roof area

11 km²

2.49 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦112bn/yr

79.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Warri South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦112bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦108bn

Lifetime cash saved₦5.71tn

NPV₦787bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy89 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity387 MWp

Capex₦377bn

Year-one energy value₦211bn

Lifetime energy value₦9.75tn

NPV₦1.51tn

Median IRR55%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Warri South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 387 MWp
Capital cost: ₦377bn
Year 1 savings: ₦211bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.51tn
Median IRR: 55%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Warri South pays back quickly

Of the 76,321 buildings in Warri South with a modelled payback, 82.0% pay back inside five years and 26.5% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Warri South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Warri South consume 242 GWh/yr but want 331 GWh/yr. The 27% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Warri South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Warri South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 76,321 buildings with a modelled result out of 76,551 in Warri South. 70,965 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years20,232 (27%)

Under 5 years62,555 (82%)

Under 7 years70,882 (93%)

Under 10 years73,943 (97%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%73,625 (96%)

Above 15%70,965 (93%)

Above 20%65,610 (86%)

Above 25%34,090 (45%)

CO₂ avoided

211 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

45 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

89 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

440k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Warri South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Warri South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	50,145	16,746	₦58.4bn	₦56.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	16,207	8,058	₦26.4bn	₦24.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	6,419	4,795	₦14.6bn	₦14.1bn	47%	2.4 yr
E	3,111	1,174	₦10.3bn	₦9.71bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	669	371	₦2.27bn	₦2.12bn	53%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	72,633	29,724	₦79.1bn	₦75.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	1,288	464	₦7.37bn	₦7.36bn	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	1,066	437	₦22.2bn	₦21.7bn	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	908	264	₦967m	₦967m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Retail	340	160	₦99.4m	₦99.4m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	176	44	₦1.75bn	₦1.61bn	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	49	14	₦97m	₦96.9m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	44	16	₦179m	₦178m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	24	11	₦43.8m	₦43.8m	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial	22	9	₦202m	₦196m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦1.73m	₦1.73m	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	20,286	8,649	₦24.8bn	₦23.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	18,755	7,470	₦54.6bn	₦52.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	14,275	5,682	₦4.42bn	₦4.34bn	25%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	13,496	5,352	₦683m	₦679m	21%	5.1 yr
30 50m2	9,217	3,754	₦994m	₦965m	23%	4.6 yr
Over 1000m2	522	237	₦26.5bn	₦25.9bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	66,527	26,217	₦78.2bn	₦76.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	4,972	1,383	₦14.1bn	₦12.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	4,022	2,995	₦16.3bn	₦15.7bn	47%	2.4 yr
Rural	1,022	549	₦3.4bn	₦3.24bn	57%	1.9 yr
Dense Urban	8	0	₦3m	₦3m	19%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	37,678	14,331	₦19bn	₦18.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	12,802	4,119	₦5.3bn	₦5.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	8,176	3,527	₦460m	₦460m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	7,139	4,195	₦48.5bn	₦44.9bn	39%	2.6 yr
Residential Small	5,644	3,089	₦5.49bn	₦5.29bn	35%	3.1 yr
Duplex	729	218	₦160m	₦160m	25%	4.6 yr
Institutional	672	266	₦20.6bn	₦20.2bn	31%	3.6 yr
Apartment	465	245	₦271m	₦271m	37%	3.1 yr
Place Of Worship	434	127	₦288m	₦288m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	421	137	₦2.68bn	₦2.67bn	35%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	348	164	₦105m	₦105m	33%	3.4 yr
School	341	139	₦781m	₦781m	43%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	71,185	28,365	₦83.8bn	₦80.1bn
Industrial	4,575	2,369	₦27.7bn	₦26.9bn
Retail	670	394	₦505m	₦505m
Farmland	93	11	₦21.9m	₦21.9m
Commercial	28	5	₦4.3m	₦4.3m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	74,736	30,473	₦84.8bn	₦80.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	1,081	444	₦22.4bn	₦21.8bn	41%	2.6 yr
SME High	734	227	₦4.89bn	₦4.86bn	35%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	25,880	8,892	₦34.8bn	₦34.6bn
3.0	24,573	11,282	₦66.7bn	₦62.8bn
2.0	15,509	6,480	₦5.61bn	₦5.34bn
0.0	7,302	3,255	₦427m	₦427m
1.0	2,852	1,167	₦507m	₦480m
5.0	290	37	₦2.08bn	₦1.96bn
6.0	145	31	₦1.91bn	₦1.89bn