Delta State

Rooftop solar in Udu, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Udu has 74,683 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.35 GWp of roof capacity. 43% run a generator, and together they spend ₦57.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

74,683

Usable roof area

10.4 km²

2.35 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦57.4bn/yr

46.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Udu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦57.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦55.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.89tn

NPV₦407bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy32.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity169 MWp

Capex₦166bn

Year-one energy value₦101bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.74tn

NPV₦746bn

Median IRR63%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Udu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 169 MWp
Capital cost: ₦166bn
Year 1 savings: ₦101bn/yr
NPV: ₦746bn
Median IRR: 63%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Udu pays back quickly

Of the 73,497 buildings in Udu with a modelled payback, 74.8% pay back inside five years and 36.1% inside three.

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How much of Udu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Udu consume 105 GWh/yr but want 138 GWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Udu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Udu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 73,497 buildings with a modelled result out of 74,683 in Udu. 64,785 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years26,568 (36%)

Under 5 years54,957 (75%)

Under 7 years64,666 (88%)

Under 10 years69,439 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%68,932 (92%)

Above 15%64,785 (87%)

Above 20%58,163 (78%)

Above 25%32,032 (43%)

CO₂ avoided

99.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

26.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

32.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

176k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Udu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Udu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	54,072	18,623	₦25.7bn	₦24.4bn	25%	4.6 yr
C	11,151	7,339	₦20.4bn	₦19.9bn	45%	2.4 yr
A	7,351	4,648	₦8.37bn	₦7.98bn	31%	3.4 yr
E	1,066	714	₦1.93bn	₦1.93bn	67%	1.6 yr
D	1,043	659	₦1.02bn	₦1.01bn	57%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	72,922	31,093	₦42.1bn	₦42bn	25%	4.6 yr
Worship	581	344	₦1.25bn	₦1.25bn	37%	3.1 yr
Anchor	479	256	₦7.83bn	₦6.15bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial General	462	211	₦2.57bn	₦2.53bn	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	93	9	₦6.88m	₦6.88m	31%	3.4 yr
Industrial	68	38	₦3.14bn	₦2.96bn	39%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	56	26	₦426m	₦393m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	12	1	₦11.1m	₦11.1m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	4	3	₦6.79m	₦6.69m	41%	2.6 yr
Productive Use	4	1	₦1.39m	₦1.39m	33%	3.4 yr
Automotive	2	1	₦1.08m	₦1.08m	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	23,434	10,946	₦14.5bn	₦14.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	18,626	7,248	₦29.9bn	₦29.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	12,734	5,619	₦2.09bn	₦2.09bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	11,666	4,858	₦519m	₦516m	19%	5.4 yr
30 50m2	7,957	3,199	₦596m	₦595m	21%	5.1 yr
Over 1000m2	266	113	₦9.87bn	₦8.29bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	57,066	20,369	₦26.9bn	₦25.9bn	25%	4.6 yr
Urban	8,012	5,775	₦11.4bn	₦11.2bn	47%	2.4 yr
Dense Urban	6,340	4,635	₦16.7bn	₦15.9bn	45%	2.4 yr
Unclassified	3,265	1,204	₦2.45bn	₦2.26bn	25%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	27,353	10,482	₦6.76bn	₦6.76bn	25%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	17,855	3,175	₦2.45bn	₦2.45bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	10,792	7,534	₦29.4bn	₦29.2bn	55%	1.9 yr
Residential Small	7,679	5,559	₦2.71bn	₦2.71bn	53%	1.9 yr
Shed	7,509	3,431	₦489m	₦489m	23%	4.6 yr
Apartment	1,174	560	₦170m	₦170m	25%	4.6 yr
Duplex	560	352	₦153m	₦153m	39%	2.9 yr
Institutional	464	268	₦6.08bn	₦5.28bn	33%	3.4 yr
Worship Center	213	125	₦257m	₦257m	37%	2.9 yr
Place Of Worship	182	106	₦188m	₦188m	35%	3.1 yr
Educational Facility	178	102	₦777m	₦777m	43%	2.4 yr
School	155	83	₦486m	₦486m	43%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	73,848	31,601	₦52.7bn	₦50.6bn
Industrial	817	364	₦4.63bn	₦4.63bn
Farmland	18	18	₦13.6m	₦13.6m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	74,001	31,654	₦45.9bn	₦45.7bn	25%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	505	273	₦10.6bn	₦8.8bn	41%	2.6 yr
SME High	177	56	₦852m	₦810m	33%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	32,891	11,546	₦13.7bn	₦13.4bn
3.0	23,393	12,584	₦37.4bn	₦35.7bn
2.0	9,711	3,879	₦2.57bn	₦2.56bn
0.0	7,188	3,421	₦484m	₦484m
1.0	1,414	533	₦97.5m	₦97.4m
5.0	58	12	₦1.05bn	₦966m
6.0	28	8	₦2.11bn	₦2.03bn