Delta State

Rooftop solar in Ndokwa West, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Ndokwa West has 56,929 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.49 GWp of roof capacity. 55% run a generator, and together they spend ₦52.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

56,929

Usable roof area

6.62 km²

1.49 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦52.9bn/yr

44.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.1 yr

Median IRR 33% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ndokwa West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦52.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦51.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.67tn

NPV₦385bn

Median IRR33%

Median payback3.1 yr

Unlocked energy25 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity135 MWp

Capex₦139bn

Year-one energy value₦92.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.37tn

NPV₦701bn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ndokwa West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 135 MWp
Capital cost: ₦139bn
Year 1 savings: ₦92.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦701bn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ndokwa West pays back quickly

Of the 56,443 buildings in Ndokwa West with a modelled payback, 81.0% pay back inside five years and 46.8% inside three.

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How much of Ndokwa West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ndokwa West consume 88 GWh/yr but want 113 GWh/yr. The 22% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ndokwa West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ndokwa West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 56,443 buildings with a modelled result out of 56,929 in Ndokwa West. 51,048 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years26,443 (47%)

Under 5 years45,711 (81%)

Under 7 years51,004 (90%)

Under 10 years53,655 (95%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%53,261 (94%)

Above 15%51,048 (90%)

Above 20%47,335 (83%)

Above 25%35,816 (63%)

CO₂ avoided

89.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

25.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

25 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

188k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ndokwa West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ndokwa West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	23,350	12,835	₦18.8bn	₦18.6bn	29%	3.9 yr
C	11,606	8,851	₦10.4bn	₦10.4bn	45%	2.4 yr
D	10,895	4,545	₦6.83bn	₦6.82bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	10,872	5,083	₦16.3bn	₦15.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	206	100	₦574m	₦574m	25%	3.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	55,924	30,644	₦41.2bn	₦41bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial General	488	369	₦4.45bn	₦4.4bn	43%	2.6 yr
Anchor	320	237	₦6.97bn	₦6.11bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	118	96	₦49.7m	₦49.7m	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	61	55	₦147m	₦147m	53%	2.1 yr
Industrial	9	7	₦88.9m	₦82.6m	75%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	7	6	₦16.4m	₦16.2m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	2	0	₦117k	₦117k	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	21,861	12,277	₦18.8bn	₦18.7bn	35%	3.1 yr
Under 30m2	10,338	5,434	₦552m	₦547m	25%	3.9 yr
50 100m2	9,861	5,199	₦2.17bn	₦2.13bn	33%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	8,673	5,192	₦25.2bn	₦25.1bn	37%	2.9 yr
30 50m2	6,137	3,276	₦620m	₦613m	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	59	36	₦5.53bn	₦4.79bn	43%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	17,031	9,258	₦12.3bn	₦12.2bn	27%	3.9 yr
Urban	15,059	8,714	₦18.4bn	₦17.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Dense Urban	13,199	8,965	₦9.79bn	₦9.78bn	45%	2.4 yr
Unclassified	6,278	1,851	₦6.18bn	₦6.07bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	5,362	2,626	₦6.3bn	₦6.22bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	17,679	9,974	₦7.45bn	₦7.45bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	14,926	8,481	₦28.8bn	₦28.6bn	37%	2.9 yr
Residential Small	10,847	6,079	₦3bn	₦2.95bn	37%	2.9 yr
Shed	8,022	3,720	₦528m	₦528m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	2,303	1,164	₦764m	₦764m	29%	3.9 yr
Duplex	1,175	595	₦342m	₦342m	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	972	631	₦311m	₦311m	41%	2.6 yr
Institutional	204	155	₦4.07bn	₦4.02bn	43%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	155	134	₦1.5bn	₦1.46bn	43%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	139	101	₦789m	₦789m	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	118	96	₦49.7m	₦49.7m	37%	2.9 yr
School	90	61	₦346m	₦346m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	56,092	31,239	₦52.5bn	₦51.4bn
Industrial	836	175	₦384m	₦384m
Orchard	1	0	₦3.29k	₦3.29k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	56,353	30,966	₦43.2bn	₦43.1bn	33%	3.4 yr
Enterprise	329	244	₦7.06bn	₦6.19bn	55%	1.9 yr
SME High	247	204	₦2.59bn	₦2.55bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	23,791	13,847	₦37.7bn	₦36.8bn
4.0	18,418	10,608	₦11.8bn	₦11.7bn
0.0	8,015	3,716	₦527m	₦527m
2.0	5,787	2,859	₦1.71bn	₦1.62bn
1.0	841	327	₦89.2m	₦88.5m
5.0	53	39	₦674m	₦655m
6.0	24	18	₦385m	₦385m