Delta State

Rooftop solar in Warri South-West, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Warri South-West has 11,378 buildings with a viable rooftop and 192 MWp of roof capacity. 30% run a generator, and together they spend ₦25.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

11,378

Usable roof area

859,138 m²

192 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦25.6bn/yr

20.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Warri South-West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦25.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦22.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.12tn

NPV₦165bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy9.34 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity61 MWp

Capex₦63.7bn

Year-one energy value₦43.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.02tn

NPV₦328bn

Median IRR77%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Warri South-West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 61 MWp
Capital cost: ₦63.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦43.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦328bn
Median IRR: 77%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Warri South-West pays back quickly

Of the 11,052 buildings in Warri South-West with a modelled payback, 60.9% pay back inside five years and 26.0% inside three.

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How much of Warri South-West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Warri South-West consume 42.6 GWh/yr but want 52 GWh/yr. The 18% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Warri South-West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Warri South-West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 11,052 buildings with a modelled result out of 11,378 in Warri South-West. 8,232 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,879 (26%)

Under 5 years6,728 (61%)

Under 7 years8,205 (74%)

Under 10 years9,032 (82%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%8,938 (79%)

Above 15%8,232 (72%)

Above 20%6,956 (61%)

Above 25%3,706 (33%)

CO₂ avoided

38.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.34 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

153k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Warri South-West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Warri South-West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	2,766	930	₦8.47bn	₦7.29bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	2,668	918	₦7.07bn	₦6.6bn	25%	4.6 yr
A	2,585	854	₦5.36bn	₦4.75bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	1,808	38	₦746m	₦474m	5%	16.4 yr
D	1,551	627	₦3.95bn	₦3.34bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	11,209	3,233	₦22.8bn	₦20.4bn	25%	4.6 yr
Anchor	92	77	₦2.37bn	₦1.65bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	49	37	₦428m	₦419m	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	26	20	₦18.5m	₦18.5m	45%	2.4 yr
Industrial	2	0	₦1.12m	₦1.12m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	3,265	667	₦133m	₦130m	15%	7.1 yr
50 100m2	2,647	754	₦2.09bn	₦1.98bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	2,306	475	₦333m	₦332m	19%	5.9 yr
100 250m2	2,290	1,007	₦8.08bn	₦7.23bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	841	448	₦12.7bn	₦11.1bn	39%	2.6 yr
Over 1000m2	29	16	₦2.27bn	₦1.66bn	41%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	5,691	673	₦8.59bn	₦7.05bn	15%	6.6 yr
Rural	3,772	1,617	₦11.4bn	₦10.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	1,308	730	₦3.93bn	₦3.09bn	45%	2.4 yr
Urban	607	347	₦1.67bn	₦1.62bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	4,683	762	₦100m	₦100m	13%	7.4 yr
Residential Small	3,207	977	₦2.67bn	₦2.56bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	2,513	1,068	₦18.6bn	₦16.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	806	426	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	58	44	₦895m	₦875m	45%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	36	30	₦337m	₦337m	63%	1.6 yr
School	27	21	₦98.2m	₦98.2m	63%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	13	12	₦1.31bn	₦665m	53%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	11	9	₦5.86m	₦5.86m	47%	2.4 yr
Clinic	10	9	₦151m	₦92m	47%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	7	5	₦3.13m	₦3.13m	47%	2.1 yr
Hospital	3	3	₦10.6m	₦9.91m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	11,106	3,283	₦24.6bn	₦21.4bn
Industrial	272	84	₦1.04bn	₦1.01bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	11,284	3,290	₦23.2bn	₦20.8bn	25%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	94	77	₦2.37bn	₦1.65bn	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	4,685	764	₦101m	₦101m
3.0	2,483	1,168	₦18.4bn	₦16.3bn
2.0	2,455	880	₦4.19bn	₦3.84bn
1.0	1,305	305	₦695m	₦661m
4.0	450	250	₦2.21bn	₦1.6bn