Delta State

Rooftop solar in Isoko North, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Isoko North has 49,006 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.32 GWp of roof capacity. 59% run a generator, and together they spend ₦70.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

49,006

Usable roof area

5.89 km²

1.32 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦70.5bn/yr

63.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

2.4 yr

Median IRR 43% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Isoko North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦70.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦69.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.51tn

NPV₦525bn

Median IRR43%

Median payback2.4 yr

Unlocked energy23.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity142 MWp

Capex₦143bn

Year-one energy value₦104bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.92tn

NPV₦803bn

Median IRR79%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Isoko North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 142 MWp
Capital cost: ₦143bn
Year 1 savings: ₦104bn/yr
NPV: ₦803bn
Median IRR: 79%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Isoko North pays back quickly

Of the 48,738 buildings in Isoko North with a modelled payback, 83.0% pay back inside five years and 56.7% inside three.

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How much of Isoko North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Isoko North consume 101 GWh/yr but want 124 GWh/yr. The 19% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Isoko North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Isoko North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 48,738 buildings with a modelled result out of 49,006 in Isoko North. 45,173 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years27,612 (57%)

Under 5 years40,449 (83%)

Under 7 years45,126 (93%)

Under 10 years47,063 (97%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%46,819 (96%)

Above 15%45,173 (92%)

Above 20%41,825 (85%)

Above 25%30,699 (63%)

CO₂ avoided

113 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

37 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

23.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

163k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Isoko North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Isoko North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	19,729	10,014	₦18.1bn	₦17.9bn	33%	3.4 yr
C	17,350	11,830	₦35.1bn	₦34.2bn	51%	2.1 yr
E	6,958	3,875	₦9.05bn	₦9bn	57%	1.9 yr
D	4,529	2,906	₦7.58bn	₦7.51bn	49%	2.1 yr
A	440	173	₦624m	₦588m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	47,330	27,613	₦55.8bn	₦54.9bn	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial General	877	594	₦8.58bn	₦8.42bn	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	314	173	₦128m	₦128m	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	262	231	₦5.36bn	₦5.08bn	61%	1.9 yr
Worship	166	139	₦446m	₦446m	53%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	24	19	₦111m	₦111m	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	18	16	₦82.2m	₦78.3m	69%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	11	9	₦5.88m	₦5.88m	61%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	4	4	₦11m	₦11m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	19,828	12,132	₦27bn	₦26.5bn	47%	2.4 yr
50 100m2	9,076	4,897	₦2.89bn	₦2.81bn	39%	2.6 yr
Under 30m2	7,752	4,280	₦563m	₦559m	33%	3.1 yr
250 1000m2	7,415	4,798	₦35.2bn	₦34.5bn	49%	2.1 yr
30 50m2	4,852	2,639	₦651m	₦645m	39%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	83	52	₦4.2bn	₦4.17bn	53%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	19,078	13,809	₦27.2bn	₦27bn	53%	2.1 yr
Urban Centre	16,348	6,816	₦16bn	₦15.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	6,766	5,229	₦17.9bn	₦17.6bn	59%	1.9 yr
Unclassified	4,952	2,171	₦7.32bn	₦6.63bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	1,862	773	₦2.14bn	₦2.14bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	15,245	7,078	₦6.13bn	₦6.13bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	12,345	8,904	₦42.4bn	₦41.6bn	59%	1.9 yr
Residential Small	8,445	5,736	₦3.97bn	₦3.85bn	57%	1.9 yr
Shed	5,718	3,322	₦546m	₦546m	53%	1.9 yr
Residential Informal	3,243	1,326	₦1.95bn	₦1.95bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	1,578	836	₦566m	₦566m	35%	3.1 yr
Duplex	756	411	₦255m	₦255m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	665	419	₦6.18bn	₦6.06bn	53%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	324	181	₦133m	₦133m	51%	2.1 yr
Institutional	190	165	₦3.69bn	₦3.67bn	49%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	98	85	₦1.59bn	₦1.59bn	61%	1.6 yr
School	72	66	₦425m	₦425m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	48,817	28,751	₦70.4bn	₦69.1bn
Industrial	189	47	₦94.4m	₦94.4m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	48,036	28,112	₦58.3bn	₦57.4bn	43%	2.4 yr
SME High	701	448	₦6.78bn	₦6.63bn	53%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	269	238	₦5.41bn	₦5.12bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	17,796	8,218	₦14.6bn	₦14.4bn
3.0	16,372	11,684	₦48.7bn	₦47.9bn
2.0	7,628	4,855	₦4.68bn	₦4.41bn
0.0	5,571	3,323	₦545m	₦545m
1.0	1,466	700	₦300m	₦298m
5.0	158	16	₦1.41bn	₦1.32bn
6.0	15	2	₦317m	₦313m