Delta State

Rooftop solar in Ukwuani, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Ukwuani has 40,296 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.03 GWp of roof capacity. 55% run a generator, and together they spend ₦43.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

40,296

Usable roof area

4.59 km²

1.03 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦43.4bn/yr

36.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

2.9 yr

Median IRR 37% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ukwuani

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦43.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦41.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.13tn

NPV₦318bn

Median IRR37%

Median payback2.9 yr

Unlocked energy19.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity95.9 MWp

Capex₦99.3bn

Year-one energy value₦73.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.47tn

NPV₦567bn

Median IRR77%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ukwuani's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 95.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦99.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦73.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦567bn
Median IRR: 77%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ukwuani pays back quickly

Of the 40,047 buildings in Ukwuani with a modelled payback, 82.2% pay back inside five years and 51.9% inside three.

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How much of Ukwuani's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ukwuani consume 61.8 GWh/yr but want 81.5 GWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ukwuani

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ukwuani actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 40,047 buildings with a modelled result out of 40,296 in Ukwuani. 36,395 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years20,803 (52%)

Under 5 years32,909 (82%)

Under 7 years36,364 (91%)

Under 10 years38,141 (95%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%37,885 (94%)

Above 15%36,395 (90%)

Above 20%33,989 (84%)

Above 25%25,149 (62%)

CO₂ avoided

71 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

22.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

136k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ukwuani.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ukwuani

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	23,676	10,754	₦21.5bn	₦19.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	9,114	5,838	₦11.5bn	₦11.4bn	69%	1.6 yr
D	4,515	3,231	₦5.18bn	₦5.18bn	49%	2.1 yr
A	1,561	1,238	₦2.41bn	₦2.39bn	45%	2.4 yr
B	1,430	1,151	₦2.74bn	₦2.74bn	45%	2.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	39,631	21,693	₦38.1bn	₦36bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	278	214	₦2.14bn	₦2.14bn	53%	2.1 yr
Anchor	254	204	₦2.81bn	₦2.72bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	74	54	₦195m	₦195m	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	41	35	₦24.8m	₦24.8m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	9	6	₦35.7m	₦35.7m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	6	3	₦24m	₦24m	33%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦4.92m	₦4.92m	53%	2.1 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦16.8m	₦16.8m	55%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦1.77m	₦1.77m	47%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	15,157	8,565	₦16.9bn	₦16.7bn	41%	2.6 yr
Under 30m2	8,644	4,499	₦499m	₦495m	25%	3.9 yr
50 100m2	6,517	3,602	₦1.77bn	₦1.76bn	39%	2.9 yr
250 1000m2	6,030	3,464	₦21.2bn	₦19.5bn	41%	2.6 yr
30 50m2	3,898	2,050	₦498m	₦426m	35%	3.1 yr
Over 1000m2	50	32	₦2.55bn	₦2.38bn	57%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	19,140	10,347	₦14bn	₦14bn	35%	3.1 yr
Dense Urban	9,923	5,402	₦14.2bn	₦12.7bn	39%	2.6 yr
Urban	5,878	3,735	₦9.12bn	₦9.01bn	59%	1.9 yr
Unclassified	2,956	1,165	₦3.49bn	₦2.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	2,399	1,563	₦2.59bn	₦2.57bn	71%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	11,652	4,686	₦3.17bn	₦3.17bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	9,974	6,797	₦29.9bn	₦28bn	59%	1.9 yr
Residential Small	7,400	5,270	₦3.03bn	₦2.94bn	59%	1.9 yr
Shed	5,848	3,422	₦461m	₦461m	45%	2.4 yr
Residential Informal	4,713	1,503	₦1.52bn	₦1.52bn	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	161	126	₦2.37bn	₦2.37bn	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	103	87	₦900m	₦900m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	95	80	₦626m	₦626m	57%	1.9 yr
School	78	64	₦260m	₦260m	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	40	35	₦20.2m	₦20.2m	55%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	36	25	₦370m	₦345m	41%	2.4 yr
Duplex	36	12	₦5.18m	₦5.18m	25%	4.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	40,127	22,148	₦43.2bn	₦41bn
Industrial	168	63	₦193m	₦193m
Retail	1	1	₦582k	₦582k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	39,923	21,911	₦39.6bn	₦37.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	263	210	₦2.85bn	₦2.75bn	57%	1.9 yr
SME High	110	91	₦930m	₦930m	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	14,341	8,777	₦34bn	₦32bn
4.0	9,481	3,841	₦4.95bn	₦4.94bn
2.0	9,136	5,337	₦3.68bn	₦3.59bn
0.0	5,815	3,415	₦460m	₦460m
1.0	1,507	841	₦152m	₦152m
5.0	15	1	₦61.8m	₦61.8m
6.0	1	0	₦17.1m	₦17.1m