Delta State

Rooftop solar in Okpe, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Okpe has 45,584 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.25 GWp of roof capacity. 53% run a generator, and together they spend ₦40bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

45,584

Usable roof area

5.56 km²

1.25 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦40bn/yr

36.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.1 yr

Median IRR 35% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Okpe

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦40bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦39.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.07tn

NPV₦306bn

Median IRR35%

Median payback3.1 yr

Unlocked energy24.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity115 MWp

Capex₦114bn

Year-one energy value₦82.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.9tn

NPV₦635bn

Median IRR75%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Okpe's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 115 MWp
Capital cost: ₦114bn
Year 1 savings: ₦82.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦635bn
Median IRR: 75%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Okpe pays back quickly

Of the 45,249 buildings in Okpe with a modelled payback, 78.7% pay back inside five years and 48.7% inside three.

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How much of Okpe's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Okpe consume 63.6 GWh/yr but want 88.3 GWh/yr. The 28% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Okpe

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Okpe actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 45,249 buildings with a modelled result out of 45,584 in Okpe. 40,402 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years22,047 (49%)

Under 5 years35,613 (79%)

Under 7 years40,346 (89%)

Under 10 years42,684 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%42,358 (93%)

Above 15%40,402 (89%)

Above 20%37,032 (81%)

Above 25%24,745 (54%)

CO₂ avoided

69.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

19.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

24.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

151k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Okpe.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Okpe

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	18,470	12,759	₦17.1bn	₦17bn	43%	2.6 yr
B	12,034	2,997	₦3.97bn	₦3.97bn	25%	4.6 yr
E	8,907	4,520	₦13.5bn	₦13bn	57%	1.9 yr
D	4,890	3,157	₦4.87bn	₦4.87bn	57%	1.9 yr
A	1,283	830	₦602m	₦602m	37%	3.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	43,677	22,673	₦28.4bn	₦27.9bn	31%	3.4 yr
Commercial General	1,001	878	₦7.53bn	₦7.51bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	462	417	₦236m	₦236m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	283	207	₦3.54bn	₦3.48bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	115	62	₦127m	₦127m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	21	15	₦70.8m	₦70.1m	63%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	17	7	₦57.8m	₦57.8m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	6	2	₦5.25m	₦5.25m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	2	2	₦6.85m	₦6.85m	47%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	14,995	8,343	₦13.7bn	₦13.2bn	39%	2.6 yr
250 1000m2	8,909	4,714	₦20.5bn	₦20.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Under 30m2	8,446	4,189	₦470m	₦469m	21%	4.9 yr
50 100m2	8,284	4,435	₦2.05bn	₦2.05bn	35%	3.1 yr
30 50m2	4,871	2,539	₦495m	₦495m	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	79	43	₦2.72bn	₦2.68bn	43%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	22,024	10,146	₦13.6bn	₦13.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	15,441	10,206	₦21.1bn	₦20.6bn	55%	1.9 yr
Unclassified	3,917	1,216	₦3.02bn	₦2.99bn	25%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	2,484	1,736	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn	39%	2.9 yr
Rural	1,718	959	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	53%	1.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	11,600	4,534	₦2.94bn	₦2.94bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	10,269	6,221	₦19.7bn	₦19.2bn	57%	1.9 yr
Residential Small	7,714	4,472	₦2.12bn	₦2.12bn	55%	1.9 yr
Shed	6,600	3,588	₦450m	₦450m	41%	2.4 yr
Residential Informal	5,889	3,156	₦2.87bn	₦2.87bn	27%	3.9 yr
Duplex	926	390	₦182m	₦182m	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	679	312	₦145m	₦145m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial	530	489	₦4.66bn	₦4.65bn	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	462	418	₦242m	₦242m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	268	243	₦1.61bn	₦1.61bn	67%	1.6 yr
Institutional	191	143	₦3.2bn	₦3.15bn	47%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	120	92	₦726m	₦726m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	45,584	24,263	₦40bn	₦39.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	44,478	23,311	₦30.1bn	₦29.6bn	33%	3.1 yr
SME High	815	740	₦6.3bn	₦6.29bn	61%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	291	212	₦3.57bn	₦3.5bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	16,625	10,184	₦24.9bn	₦24.8bn
4.0	14,239	5,992	₦9.46bn	₦9.41bn
2.0	6,633	3,582	₦2.59bn	₦2.13bn
0.0	6,539	3,594	₦450m	₦450m
1.0	1,280	683	₦258m	₦258m
5.0	196	170	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn
6.0	72	58	₦1.13bn	₦1.13bn