Delta State

Rooftop solar in Ndokwa East, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Ndokwa East has 31,790 buildings with a viable rooftop and 646 MWp of roof capacity. 39% run a generator, and together they spend ₦29bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

31,790

Usable roof area

2.88 km²

646 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦29bn/yr

24.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ndokwa East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦29bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦28.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.47tn

NPV₦217bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy13.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity83.2 MWp

Capex₦86.2bn

Year-one energy value₦66.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.13tn

NPV₦516bn

Median IRR85%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ndokwa East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 83.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦86.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦66.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦516bn
Median IRR: 85%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ndokwa East pays back quickly

Of the 31,296 buildings in Ndokwa East with a modelled payback, 67.4% pay back inside five years and 36.7% inside three.

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How much of Ndokwa East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ndokwa East consume 43.8 GWh/yr but want 57.5 GWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ndokwa East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ndokwa East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 31,296 buildings with a modelled result out of 31,790 in Ndokwa East. 24,126 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,498 (37%)

Under 5 years21,086 (67%)

Under 7 years24,092 (77%)

Under 10 years26,490 (85%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%26,030 (82%)

Above 15%24,126 (76%)

Above 20%21,939 (69%)

Above 25%15,556 (49%)

CO₂ avoided

49.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

14.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

164k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ndokwa East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ndokwa East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	15,736	4,560	₦11.5bn	₦11.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	8,481	4,279	₦7.45bn	₦7.38bn	33%	3.1 yr
A	3,231	1,545	₦3.95bn	₦3.95bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	2,956	1,314	₦4.2bn	₦4.11bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	1,386	652	₦1.88bn	₦1.88bn	25%	3.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	30,921	11,662	₦24.3bn	₦23.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Worship	362	305	₦736m	₦736m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	225	162	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	220	183	₦2.56bn	₦2.47bn	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	35	18	₦225m	₦225m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	16	10	₦2.03m	₦2.03m	49%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	6	6	₦45.1m	₦45.1m	67%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	5	4	₦4.34m	₦4.34m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	10,367	4,934	₦12.4bn	₦12.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	7,540	2,320	₦316m	₦314m	9%	8.6 yr
50 100m2	6,552	2,128	₦1.7bn	₦1.69bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	4,550	1,352	₦391m	₦389m	17%	6.1 yr
250 1000m2	2,737	1,586	₦12.2bn	₦11.8bn	43%	2.6 yr
Over 1000m2	44	30	₦2.01bn	₦2.01bn	39%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	12,188	2,080	₦7.47bn	₦7.18bn	21%	4.9 yr
Urban	7,720	4,091	₦8.43bn	₦8.38bn	31%	3.1 yr
Rural	7,499	3,788	₦7.16bn	₦7.04bn	35%	3.1 yr
Dense Urban	4,199	2,207	₦5.31bn	₦5.29bn	41%	2.6 yr
Urban Centre	184	184	₦610m	₦610m	45%	2.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	9,754	2,591	₦365m	₦365m	11%	9.1 yr
Residential Small	9,483	3,617	₦2.65bn	₦2.65bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	9,442	4,679	₦20.5bn	₦20.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	2,097	739	₦786m	₦786m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	252	204	₦2.43bn	₦2.42bn	55%	1.9 yr
Apartment	132	25	₦17.8m	₦17.8m	25%	4.4 yr
Worship Center	129	106	₦132m	₦132m	61%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	116	101	₦92.5m	₦92.5m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	91	75	₦434m	₦434m	79%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	65	44	₦168m	₦168m	63%	1.6 yr
School	55	44	₦181m	₦181m	77%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	35	30	₦533m	₦450m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	30,131	11,582	₦26.7bn	₦26.2bn
Industrial	1,659	768	₦2.28bn	₦2.28bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	31,463	12,103	₦26bn	₦25.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	250	197	₦2.76bn	₦2.66bn	67%	1.6 yr
SME High	77	50	₦267m	₦267m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	11,539	5,584	₦23.7bn	₦23.2bn
0.0	9,754	2,593	₦364m	₦364m
2.0	6,337	2,928	₦3.28bn	₦3.23bn
1.0	2,096	523	₦307m	₦306m
4.0	2,054	721	₦1.28bn	₦1.27bn
5.0	10	1	₦80.7m	₦80.7m