Delta State

Rooftop solar in Aniocha North, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Aniocha North has 34,025 buildings with a viable rooftop and 893 MWp of roof capacity. 24% run a generator, and together they spend ₦29.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

34,025

Usable roof area

3.97 km²

893 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦29.1bn/yr

29.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Aniocha North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦29.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦27.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.4tn

NPV₦214bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy15.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity83.8 MWp

Capex₦82.6bn

Year-one energy value₦62.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.93tn

NPV₦483bn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Aniocha North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 83.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦82.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦62.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦483bn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Aniocha North pays back quickly

Of the 33,361 buildings in Aniocha North with a modelled payback, 60.8% pay back inside five years and 23.5% inside three.

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How much of Aniocha North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Aniocha North consume 50 GWh/yr but want 65.3 GWh/yr. The 23% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Aniocha North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Aniocha North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 33,361 buildings with a modelled result out of 34,025 in Aniocha North. 26,188 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,840 (24%)

Under 5 years20,268 (61%)

Under 7 years26,131 (78%)

Under 10 years29,494 (88%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%28,941 (85%)

Above 15%26,188 (77%)

Above 20%21,921 (64%)

Above 25%13,193 (39%)

CO₂ avoided

46.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

13.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

117k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Aniocha North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Aniocha North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	12,947	3,839	₦18.8bn	₦18bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	12,122	2,017	₦2.99bn	₦2.99bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	8,956	2,293	₦7.31bn	₦6.93bn	19%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	32,730	7,277	₦15.2bn	₦14.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	625	431	₦7.07bn	₦6.68bn	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	292	183	₦64m	₦64m	43%	2.4 yr
Anchor	211	152	₦6.25bn	₦5.8bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	140	91	₦156m	₦156m	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial	19	14	₦83.9m	₦83.9m	69%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	8	1	₦288m	₦283m	31%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	13,412	2,913	₦6.12bn	₦5.83bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	6,595	1,501	₦760m	₦759m	21%	4.9 yr
Under 30m2	5,327	1,258	₦161m	₦160m	11%	7.4 yr
250 1000m2	4,618	1,462	₦11.2bn	₦11.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	3,987	955	₦217m	₦216m	17%	5.9 yr
Over 1000m2	86	60	₦10.7bn	₦9.81bn	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	17,792	3,594	₦8.06bn	₦8.04bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	9,046	3,114	₦14.9bn	₦13.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	5,316	1,098	₦5.65bn	₦5.39bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	1,871	343	₦549m	₦549m	17%	5.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	9,350	2,867	₦13.3bn	₦12.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	8,200	1,120	₦727m	₦727m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	6,732	1,688	₦862m	₦859m	21%	4.9 yr
Shed	4,686	1,345	₦175m	₦175m	17%	6.4 yr
Apartment	2,280	249	₦141m	₦141m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,357	1	₦63.6m	₦63.6m	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial	359	299	₦6.02bn	₦5.66bn	47%	2.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	292	183	₦64m	₦64m	43%	2.4 yr
Institutional	184	127	₦5.03bn	₦4.96bn	45%	2.4 yr
Duplex	125	7	₦5.28m	₦5.28m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	106	31	₦184m	₦184m	35%	3.1 yr
Educational Facility	78	60	₦393m	₦393m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	34,025	8,149	₦29.1bn	₦27.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	33,326	7,652	₦16.3bn	₦15.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	470	331	₦6.49bn	₦6.12bn	47%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	229	166	₦6.33bn	₦5.88bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	14,128	4,099	₦17.4bn	₦16.8bn
4.0	11,578	1,446	₦3.75bn	₦3.68bn
0.0	4,685	1,345	₦174m	₦174m
2.0	2,762	851	₦1.68bn	₦1.38bn
1.0	485	139	₦111m	₦109m
5.0	277	184	₦930m	₦930m
6.0	110	85	₦5.14bn	₦4.77bn