Delta State

Rooftop solar in Burutu, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Burutu has 25,919 buildings with a viable rooftop and 500 MWp of roof capacity. 41% run a generator, and together they spend ₦98.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

25,919

Usable roof area

2.23 km²

500 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦98.8bn/yr

84 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Burutu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦98.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦87.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.22tn

NPV₦671bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy24 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity169 MWp

Capex₦176bn

Year-one energy value₦143bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.55tn

NPV₦1.1tn

Median IRR83%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Burutu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 169 MWp
Capital cost: ₦176bn
Year 1 savings: ₦143bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.1tn
Median IRR: 83%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Burutu pays back quickly

Of the 25,473 buildings in Burutu with a modelled payback, 68.4% pay back inside five years and 39.2% inside three.

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How much of Burutu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Burutu consume 126 GWh/yr but want 150 GWh/yr. The 16% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Burutu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Burutu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 25,473 buildings with a modelled result out of 25,919 in Burutu. 18,988 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,984 (39%)

Under 5 years17,435 (68%)

Under 7 years18,972 (74%)

Under 10 years20,119 (79%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%19,877 (77%)

Above 15%18,988 (73%)

Above 20%17,758 (69%)

Above 25%10,952 (42%)

CO₂ avoided

142 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

50.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

24 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

366k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Burutu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Burutu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	13,764	5,159	₦57.2bn	₦49.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	5,215	2,715	₦20.3bn	₦18.9bn	35%	2.9 yr
C	3,181	1,239	₦7.76bn	₦7.29bn	25%	4.6 yr
A	2,237	596	₦7.04bn	₦6.39bn	25%	4.6 yr
B	1,522	924	₦6.57bn	₦5.58bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	25,477	10,293	₦92.9bn	₦82bn	25%	4.6 yr
Anchor	204	164	₦4.09bn	₦3.58bn	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	120	93	₦1.21bn	₦1.19bn	53%	2.1 yr
Worship	96	70	₦248m	₦248m	53%	2.1 yr
Industrial	12	9	₦94.7m	₦94.2m	61%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	10	4	₦269m	₦169m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	7,037	3,985	₦39.9bn	₦37.1bn	39%	2.6 yr
50 100m2	6,259	2,487	₦6.68bn	₦6.32bn	25%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	6,087	1,682	₦551m	₦378m	7%	12.9 yr
30 50m2	4,453	1,246	₦743m	₦735m	17%	6.1 yr
250 1000m2	2,025	1,198	₦42.5bn	₦36.8bn	43%	2.4 yr
Over 1000m2	58	35	₦8.44bn	₦5.99bn	45%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	8,876	1,438	₦18.6bn	₦15.6bn	9%	12.9 yr
Dense Urban	6,896	4,152	₦27.7bn	₦26.2bn	39%	2.9 yr
Rural	6,182	2,697	₦18.7bn	₦15.3bn	25%	4.6 yr
Urban	3,965	2,346	₦33.8bn	₦30.2bn	43%	2.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	8,684	2,066	₦333m	₦333m	7%	13.4 yr
Residential Small	8,296	3,847	₦9.8bn	₦9.44bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	6,664	3,860	₦82.1bn	₦71.6bn	57%	1.9 yr
Residential Formal	1,128	232	₦399m	₦399m	25%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	508	165	₦231m	₦231m	25%	4.6 yr
Apartment	188	123	₦78.9m	₦78.9m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	151	116	₦2.71bn	₦2.65bn	53%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	83	63	₦473m	₦473m	71%	1.4 yr
School	56	44	₦197m	₦197m	71%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	32	24	₦82m	₦82m	59%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	31	26	₦1.32bn	₦941m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	31	22	₦23.3m	₦23.3m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	25,140	10,292	₦92.4bn	₦81.8bn
Industrial	779	341	₦6.4bn	₦5.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	25,698	10,457	₦94.3bn	₦83.4bn	25%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	212	171	₦4.11bn	₦3.6bn	67%	1.6 yr
SME High	9	5	₦427m	₦309m	53%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	8,805	5,172	₦84bn	₦74.5bn
0.0	8,690	2,068	₦333m	₦333m
2.0	4,954	2,400	₦11.6bn	₦10.3bn
1.0	2,105	564	₦1.65bn	₦1.14bn
4.0	1,357	428	₦889m	₦871m
5.0	5	0	₦20.4m	₦20.4m
6.0	3	1	₦246m	₦146m