Delta State

Rooftop solar in Patani, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Patani has 8,668 buildings with a viable rooftop and 216 MWp of roof capacity. 64% run a generator, and together they spend ₦45.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

8,668

Usable roof area

961,505 m²

216 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦45.9bn/yr

42.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

1.9 yr

Median IRR 59% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Patani

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦45.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦41.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.05tn

NPV₦326bn

Median IRR59%

Median payback1.9 yr

Unlocked energy10.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity74.1 MWp

Capex₦75.5bn

Year-one energy value₦66.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.12tn

NPV₦528bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Patani's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 74.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦75.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦66.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦528bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Patani pays back quickly

Of the 8,622 buildings in Patani with a modelled payback, 87.6% pay back inside five years and 64.3% inside three.

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How much of Patani's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Patani consume 53.8 GWh/yr but want 64.8 GWh/yr. The 17% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Patani

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Patani actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 8,622 buildings with a modelled result out of 8,668 in Patani. 7,833 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,545 (64%)

Under 5 years7,551 (88%)

Under 7 years7,831 (91%)

Under 10 years8,021 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%7,961 (92%)

Above 15%7,833 (90%)

Above 20%7,621 (88%)

Above 25%6,056 (70%)

CO₂ avoided

65.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

24 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

126k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Patani.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Patani

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	4,815	3,025	₦31.7bn	₦29.3bn	69%	1.6 yr
D	3,853	2,521	₦14.2bn	₦12.2bn	53%	2.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	8,030	4,936	₦39bn	₦34.9bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	304	294	₦4.51bn	₦4.44bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	165	157	₦129m	₦129m	53%	1.9 yr
Anchor	100	97	₦1.95bn	₦1.8bn	73%	1.4 yr
Worship	58	52	₦196m	₦196m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	9	8	₦40.8m	₦40.8m	71%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	2	2	₦11.5m	₦11.1m	53%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	3,087	2,095	₦18.4bn	₦16.6bn	59%	1.9 yr
50 100m2	1,748	1,048	₦3.09bn	₦2.28bn	57%	1.9 yr
Under 30m2	1,571	902	₦242m	₦240m	51%	1.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,150	841	₦21.3bn	₦19.8bn	61%	1.6 yr
30 50m2	1,095	645	₦509m	₦461m	53%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	17	15	₦2.28bn	₦2.13bn	73%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	4,771	3,525	₦24.5bn	₦23.9bn	59%	1.9 yr
Urban	2,068	1,252	₦8bn	₦7.79bn	59%	1.9 yr
Unclassified	1,318	470	₦9.13bn	₦5.77bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	511	299	₦4.26bn	₦4.07bn	67%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	2,996	1,954	₦32.8bn	₦30bn	61%	1.9 yr
Residential Small	2,676	1,758	₦5.18bn	₦3.85bn	59%	1.9 yr
Shed	1,592	729	₦113m	₦113m	17%	5.9 yr
Residential Formal	766	495	₦929m	₦926m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	218	214	₦3.75bn	₦3.68bn	63%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	165	157	₦129m	₦129m	53%	1.9 yr
Institutional	86	81	₦1.76bn	₦1.62bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	36	34	₦354m	₦354m	77%	1.4 yr
School	27	26	₦177m	₦177m	77%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	23	20	₦29.7m	₦29.7m	63%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	18	18	₦200m	₦198m	53%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	16	15	₦17.2m	₦17.2m	59%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	8,668	5,546	₦45.9bn	₦41.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	8,335	5,221	₦40bn	₦35.8bn	57%	1.9 yr
SME High	224	220	₦3.91bn	₦3.83bn	63%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	109	105	₦2bn	₦1.84bn	73%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	3,075	2,200	₦34.9bn	₦32.2bn
2.0	2,525	1,671	₦5.96bn	₦4.41bn
0.0	1,593	729	₦113m	₦113m
4.0	740	525	₦3.79bn	₦3.75bn
1.0	728	414	₦379m	₦349m
5.0	7	7	₦746m	₦703m