Delta State

Rooftop solar in Ughelli South, Delta: what the roofs are worth

Ughelli South has 54,838 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.42 GWp of roof capacity. 62% run a generator, and together they spend ₦87.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

54,838

Usable roof area

6.31 km²

1.42 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦87.8bn/yr

74.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

2.6 yr

Median IRR 39% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ughelli South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦87.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦86.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.46tn

NPV₦656bn

Median IRR39%

Median payback2.6 yr

Unlocked energy35.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity199 MWp

Capex₦206bn

Year-one energy value₦148bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.01tn

NPV₦1.14tn

Median IRR79%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ughelli South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 199 MWp
Capital cost: ₦206bn
Year 1 savings: ₦148bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.14tn
Median IRR: 79%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ughelli South pays back quickly

Of the 54,427 buildings in Ughelli South with a modelled payback, 83.7% pay back inside five years and 55.0% inside three.

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How much of Ughelli South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ughelli South consume 126 GWh/yr but want 162 GWh/yr. The 22% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ughelli South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ughelli South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 54,427 buildings with a modelled result out of 54,838 in Ughelli South. 49,248 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years29,919 (55%)

Under 5 years45,544 (84%)

Under 7 years49,216 (90%)

Under 10 years51,193 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%50,885 (93%)

Above 15%49,248 (90%)

Above 20%46,565 (85%)

Above 25%34,921 (64%)

CO₂ avoided

147 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

47 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

35.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

308k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ughelli South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ughelli South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	21,099	12,670	₦21.7bn	₦21.7bn	37%	2.9 yr
E	12,188	6,748	₦29bn	₦28.1bn	65%	1.6 yr
D	10,235	7,181	₦19.3bn	₦19.3bn	55%	1.9 yr
A	7,533	4,887	₦10bn	₦9.8bn	35%	3.1 yr
C	3,783	2,547	₦7.8bn	₦7.7bn	57%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	53,125	32,706	₦77.3bn	₦76.4bn	39%	2.9 yr
Worship	808	723	₦2.83bn	₦2.83bn	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	389	242	₦2.46bn	₦2.46bn	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	359	322	₦4.99bn	₦4.64bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	105	1	₦8.93m	₦8.93m	31%	3.4 yr
Industrial	42	36	₦179m	₦177m	39%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	5	3	₦29.9m	₦29.9m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	3	0	₦5.71m	₦5.71m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦1.75m	₦1.75m	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	19,567	13,064	₦36.3bn	₦35.8bn	43%	2.4 yr
Under 30m2	10,285	5,448	₦790m	₦776m	31%	3.4 yr
50 100m2	10,161	6,488	₦4.89bn	₦4.89bn	41%	2.6 yr
250 1000m2	8,853	5,546	₦41.5bn	₦40.8bn	39%	2.9 yr
30 50m2	5,888	3,432	₦974m	₦974m	37%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	84	55	₦3.35bn	₦3.3bn	39%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	20,673	12,426	₦17.2bn	₦17.2bn	35%	3.1 yr
Dense Urban	18,886	14,588	₦38.9bn	₦38.8bn	57%	1.9 yr
Urban	6,613	3,526	₦14.4bn	₦14.3bn	37%	2.9 yr
Unclassified	6,187	2,045	₦8.44bn	₦7.76bn	25%	4.6 yr
Rural	2,479	1,448	₦8.74bn	₦8.49bn	67%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	16,422	11,566	₦62.2bn	₦61.3bn	51%	2.1 yr
Residential Small	14,154	10,311	₦8.52bn	₦8.5bn	53%	1.9 yr
Residential Formal	11,184	5,376	₦5.39bn	₦5.39bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	9,938	4,885	₦680m	₦680m	23%	4.6 yr
Apartment	737	223	₦189m	₦189m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	511	459	₦5.78bn	₦5.73bn	47%	2.4 yr
Residential Informal	440	263	₦219m	₦219m	39%	2.6 yr
Worship Center	293	258	₦420m	₦420m	53%	2.1 yr
Duplex	250	82	₦62.3m	₦62.3m	25%	4.6 yr
Place Of Worship	238	216	₦280m	₦280m	53%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	150	131	₦964m	₦964m	67%	1.6 yr
School	107	96	₦429m	₦429m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	54,680	33,905	₦86.9bn	₦85.6bn
Industrial	158	128	₦926m	₦923m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	54,320	33,670	₦82.4bn	₦81.4bn	39%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	397	357	₦5.16bn	₦4.81bn	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	121	6	₦292m	₦292m	33%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	24,075	17,593	₦74bn	₦72.8bn
4.0	11,342	5,327	₦6.87bn	₦6.87bn
0.0	9,939	4,885	₦680m	₦680m
2.0	8,092	5,529	₦5.79bn	₦5.78bn
1.0	1,378	697	₦278m	₦268m
5.0	12	2	₦156m	₦156m