Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Kebbi State: buildings, spend and payback

2,084,546 buildings in Kebbi State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦338bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 10% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

2,084,546

Usable roof area

66.1 km²

14.6 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦338bn/yr

290 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

9.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kebbi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦338bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦325bn

Lifetime cash saved₦17.4tn

NPV₦2.63tn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.9 yr

Unlocked energy290 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity1.57 GWp

Capex₦1.68tn

Year-one energy value₦1.69tn

Lifetime energy value₦80tn

NPV₦13.7tn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kebbi State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 1.57 GWp
Capital cost: ₦1.68tn
Year 1 savings: ₦1.69tn/yr
NPV: ₦13.7tn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kebbi State pays back quickly

Of the 2,059,371 buildings in Kebbi State with a modelled payback, 32.2% pay back inside five years and 10.0% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

32.2%

Payback under 3 years

10.0%

IRR above 20%

34.0%

Under 3 years · 10%3 – 5 years · 22%5 – 7 years · 9%7 – 10 years · 10%Over 10 years · 49%

Coverage: 99% of buildings in Kebbi State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Kebbi State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kebbi State consume 591 GWh/yr but want 881 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 67%Suppressed · 33%

Energy wanted

881 GWh/yr

Energy consumed

591 GWh/yr

Unmet demand

290 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Kebbi State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 2,059,371 buildings with a modelled result out of 2,084,546 in Kebbi State. 837,081 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years205,667 (10%)

Under 5 years662,978 (32%)

Under 7 years838,484 (41%)

Under 10 years1,040,732 (51%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%974,425 (47%)

Above 15%837,081 (40%)

Above 20%708,024 (34%)

Above 25%581,053 (28%)

Electricity billing bands in Kebbi State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kebbi State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	787,886	52,606	₦79.6bn	₦76.4bn	7%	14.6 yr
E	648,227	43,213	₦69.1bn	₦64.7bn	7%	14.6 yr
C	396,861	62,320	₦111bn	₦108bn	19%	5.4 yr
B	188,298	32,429	₦61.4bn	₦59.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
A	63,274	15,156	₦16.8bn	₦16.6bn	29%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	2,042,049	179,180	₦248bn	₦238bn	9%	12.9 yr
Commercial Retail	20,344	12,016	₦2.39bn	₦2.39bn	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	14,522	8,698	₦32.7bn	₦32.2bn	49%	2.1 yr
Anchor	5,528	4,356	₦53.3bn	₦51.8bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	1,718	1,292	₦493m	₦493m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	312	161	₦793m	₦792m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	41	12	₦126m	₦126m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	20	7	₦22.8m	₦22.8m	39%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	11	1	₦16.1m	₦16.1m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦13m	₦13m	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	1,178,850	75,904	₦9.75bn	₦9.7bn	5%	16.1 yr
30 50m2	373,049	34,651	₦12.7bn	₦12.2bn	11%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	372,486	49,482	₦55.5bn	₦53.6bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	135,585	35,287	₦97.6bn	₦92.5bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	23,492	9,744	₦102bn	₦98.9bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	1,084	656	₦60bn	₦58.5bn	55%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	648,372	23,864	₦74.6bn	₦67.9bn	5%	16.4 yr
Rural	533,757	41,205	₦43.9bn	₦41.9bn	7%	13.9 yr
Urban	355,958	47,392	₦95.1bn	₦92.7bn	11%	8.9 yr
Dense Urban	276,217	42,685	₦52bn	₦51.5bn	19%	5.4 yr
Urban Centre	270,242	50,578	₦72.3bn	₦71.4bn	25%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	1,224,180	73,046	₦8.51bn	₦8.51bn	7%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	385,253	52,530	₦62.6bn	₦60bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	164,911	28,273	₦158bn	₦151bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	146,294	18,019	₦14.2bn	₦14bn	23%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	119,437	6,771	₦4.18bn	₦4.18bn	19%	5.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	20,341	12,016	₦2.39bn	₦2.39bn	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	6,133	3,048	₦13.9bn	₦13.9bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial	3,977	2,371	₦11.7bn	₦11.3bn	47%	2.1 yr
Institutional	3,489	2,761	₦40.2bn	₦39.3bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	1,952	1,562	₦3.22bn	₦3.22bn	85%	1.1 yr
Apartment	1,336	379	₦209m	₦209m	31%	3.6 yr
School	1,251	963	₦1.18bn	₦1.18bn	81%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	2,083,122	205,523	₦337bn	₦325bn
Farmland	1,075	139	₦466m	₦457m
Farmyard	171	0	₦1.92m	₦1.92m
Industrial	113	51	₦302m	₦301m
Commercial	44	10	₦5.33m	₦5.33m
Retail	17	0	₦555k	₦555k
Orchard	4	1	₦2.21m	₦2.21m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	2,068,612	195,806	₦258bn	₦248bn	9%	9.9 yr
SME High	10,179	5,438	₦25.8bn	₦25.4bn	41%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	5,755	4,480	₦53.8bn	₦52.3bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	1,217,981	73,006	₦8.48bn	₦8.48bn
2.0	310,848	40,041	₦54.5bn	₦50.9bn
3.0	233,723	53,275	₦216bn	₦209bn
1.0	174,093	23,546	₦16bn	₦15bn
4.0	144,748	15,010	₦29.4bn	₦29bn
5.0	2,830	722	₦8.98bn	₦8.7bn
6.0	323	124	₦4.54bn	₦4.35bn