Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Dandi, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Dandi has 81,751 buildings with a viable rooftop and 588 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦9.73bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

81,751

Usable roof area

2.67 km²

588 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦9.73bn/yr

8.02 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

12.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Dandi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦9.73bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.36bn

Lifetime cash saved₦501bn

NPV₦75.1bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback12.9 yr

Unlocked energy9.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity54.7 MWp

Capex₦59.4bn

Year-one energy value₦61.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.92tn

NPV₦502bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Dandi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 54.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦59.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦61.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦502bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Dandi pays back quickly

Of the 80,959 buildings in Dandi with a modelled payback, 29.1% pay back inside five years and 8.5% inside three.

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How much of Dandi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Dandi consume 17.5 GWh/yr but want 27.2 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Dandi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Dandi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 80,959 buildings with a modelled result out of 81,751 in Dandi. 30,460 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,888 (9%)

Under 5 years23,539 (29%)

Under 7 years30,504 (38%)

Under 10 years39,979 (49%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%36,499 (45%)

Above 15%30,460 (37%)

Above 20%25,251 (31%)

Above 25%20,698 (25%)

CO₂ avoided

18.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.37 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

185k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Dandi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Dandi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	30,979	1,415	₦2.88bn	₦2.86bn	7%	14.4 yr
E	23,721	1,392	₦2.18bn	₦1.9bn	7%	14.1 yr
C	23,328	3,863	₦4.41bn	₦4.32bn	21%	5.1 yr
B	3,723	241	₦272m	₦272m	17%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	81,011	6,246	₦7.68bn	₦7.31bn	9%	13.1 yr
Commercial General	259	230	₦565m	₦565m	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	229	193	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	212	204	₦31m	₦31m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship	39	37	₦11m	₦11m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	1	1	₦267k	₦267k	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	46,529	2,461	₦305m	₦305m	7%	15.4 yr
50 100m2	15,272	1,651	₦1.63bn	₦1.61bn	29%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	12,913	996	₦297m	₦297m	11%	9.1 yr
100 250m2	6,143	1,466	₦3.56bn	₦3.22bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	866	324	₦2.46bn	₦2.46bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	28	13	₦1.48bn	₦1.47bn	31%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	34,638	2,113	₦4.15bn	₦3.88bn	7%	14.4 yr
Rural	23,330	1,159	₦1.82bn	₦1.71bn	7%	14.1 yr
Dense Urban	17,524	2,937	₦2.35bn	₦2.35bn	21%	4.9 yr
Urban	6,259	702	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn	19%	5.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	49,382	2,549	₦300m	₦300m	7%	14.9 yr
Residential Small	15,589	1,564	₦1.78bn	₦1.76bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	7,788	954	₦4.97bn	₦4.62bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	5,405	577	₦303m	₦303m	19%	5.1 yr
Residential Informal	2,704	567	₦316m	₦316m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	212	204	₦31m	₦31m	67%	1.6 yr
Institutional	133	115	₦782m	₦782m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	101	90	₦175m	₦175m	87%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	84	78	₦194m	₦194m	55%	1.9 yr
Apartment	80	22	₦9.12m	₦9.12m	29%	3.6 yr
Duplex	63	13	₦9.77m	₦9.77m	29%	3.6 yr
School	54	45	₦32.1m	₦32.1m	83%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	81,551	6,876	₦9.54bn	₦9.16bn
Farmland	196	34	₦190m	₦190m
Orchard	4	1	₦2.21m	₦2.21m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	81,395	6,600	₦7.98bn	₦7.61bn	9%	12.9 yr
Enterprise	230	194	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn	75%	1.4 yr
SME High	126	117	₦310m	₦310m	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	49,382	2,550	₦300m	₦300m
2.0	11,992	1,204	₦2.12bn	₦1.97bn
3.0	8,766	1,898	₦6.04bn	₦5.83bn
1.0	6,439	561	₦541m	₦520m
4.0	5,171	697	₦724m	₦724m
5.0	1	1	₦12.4m	₦12.4m