Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Arewa Dandi, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Arewa Dandi has 144,115 buildings with a viable rooftop and 664 MWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

144,115

Usable roof area

3.04 km²

664 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.8bn/yr

10.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.1 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Arewa Dandi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦650bn

NPV₦97.1bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback15.1 yr

Unlocked energy10.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity76.6 MWp

Capex₦84.2bn

Year-one energy value₦94bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.43tn

NPV₦771bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Arewa Dandi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 76.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦84.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦94bn/yr
NPV: ₦771bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Arewa Dandi pays back quickly

Of the 143,676 buildings in Arewa Dandi with a modelled payback, 16.7% pay back inside five years and 4.5% inside three.

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How much of Arewa Dandi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Arewa Dandi consume 21.3 GWh/yr but want 32.1 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Arewa Dandi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Arewa Dandi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 143,676 buildings with a modelled result out of 144,115 in Arewa Dandi. 30,470 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,398 (4%)

Under 5 years23,981 (17%)

Under 7 years30,574 (21%)

Under 10 years45,548 (32%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%39,730 (28%)

Above 15%30,470 (21%)

Above 20%25,270 (18%)

Above 25%21,769 (15%)

CO₂ avoided

23.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.03 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

322k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Arewa Dandi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Arewa Dandi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	65,187	1,369	₦4.02bn	₦3.81bn	7%	15.6 yr
E	56,549	1,468	₦3.68bn	₦3.5bn	7%	15.4 yr
C	22,375	3,336	₦5.11bn	₦4.93bn	15%	6.9 yr
B	4	0	₦8.03k	₦8.03k	7%	13.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	142,952	5,503	₦10.6bn	₦10.1bn	7%	15.1 yr
Commercial General	383	221	₦591m	₦591m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	327	48	₦29.9m	₦29.9m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	320	283	₦1.53bn	₦1.53bn	81%	1.4 yr
Worship	126	111	₦18.4m	₦18.4m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	7	7	₦19.9m	₦19.9m	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	99,338	2,153	₦432m	₦432m	5%	16.4 yr
30 50m2	24,886	1,017	₦623m	₦623m	9%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	15,681	1,519	₦2.21bn	₦2.06bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	3,716	1,173	₦3.35bn	₦3.3bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	478	299	₦4.45bn	₦4.09bn	65%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	16	12	₦1.74bn	₦1.74bn	71%	1.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	89,187	1,312	₦4.25bn	₦3.98bn	7%	15.6 yr
Rural	39,010	1,177	₦2.77bn	₦2.55bn	7%	14.6 yr
Dense Urban	8,743	3,233	₦4.42bn	₦4.39bn	31%	3.6 yr
Urban	7,175	451	₦1.36bn	₦1.32bn	9%	13.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	108,873	1,480	₦335m	₦335m	5%	16.1 yr
Residential Small	20,588	1,773	₦2.69bn	₦2.54bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	9,713	1,392	₦7.36bn	₦6.95bn	21%	5.4 yr
Residential Formal	3,759	849	₦229m	₦229m	27%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	327	48	₦29.9m	₦29.9m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	214	190	₦928m	₦928m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	149	134	₦317m	₦317m	89%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	146	5	₦78.2m	₦78.2m	37%	2.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	75	63	₦542m	₦539m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial	58	56	₦98m	₦98m	71%	1.4 yr
School	52	48	₦94.4m	₦94.4m	87%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	43	37	₦5.85m	₦5.85m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	144,115	6,173	₦12.8bn	₦12.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	143,584	5,822	₦11.1bn	₦10.5bn	7%	15.1 yr
Enterprise	327	290	₦1.55bn	₦1.55bn	81%	1.4 yr
SME High	204	61	₦176m	₦176m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	108,907	1,508	₦337m	₦337m
2.0	14,350	1,560	₦2.7bn	₦2.55bn
1.0	10,461	547	₦757m	₦716m
3.0	6,489	1,652	₦8.53bn	₦8.15bn
4.0	3,840	906	₦432m	₦432m
5.0	66	0	₦49.7m	₦49.7m
6.0	2	0	₦4.9m	₦4.9m