Kebbi State

Rooftop solar in Gwandu, Kebbi: what the roofs are worth

Gwandu has 85,471 buildings with a viable rooftop and 600 MWp of roof capacity. 13% run a generator, and together they spend ₦9.84bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

85,471

Usable roof area

2.72 km²

600 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦9.84bn/yr

8.41 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.9 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gwandu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦9.84bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.61bn

Lifetime cash saved₦508bn

NPV₦78.7bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.9 yr

Unlocked energy9.82 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity54.6 MWp

Capex₦59.3bn

Year-one energy value₦64bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.05tn

NPV₦526bn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Gwandu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 54.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦59.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦64bn/yr
NPV: ₦526bn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gwandu pays back quickly

Of the 83,320 buildings in Gwandu with a modelled payback, 36.2% pay back inside five years and 14.1% inside three.

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How much of Gwandu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gwandu consume 16 GWh/yr but want 25.8 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gwandu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gwandu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 83,320 buildings with a modelled result out of 85,471 in Gwandu. 37,421 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,748 (14%)

Under 5 years30,140 (36%)

Under 7 years37,486 (45%)

Under 10 years48,191 (58%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%43,966 (51%)

Above 15%37,421 (44%)

Above 20%32,160 (38%)

Above 25%26,596 (31%)

CO₂ avoided

18.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.82 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

185k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gwandu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gwandu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	32,884	3,292	₦3.51bn	₦3.42bn	9%	12.9 yr
E	29,477	3,714	₦2.85bn	₦2.76bn	9%	9.9 yr
C	13,191	3,323	₦2.74bn	₦2.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	9,919	1,199	₦731m	₦731m	17%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	83,709	10,201	₦7.87bn	₦7.67bn	11%	9.1 yr
Commercial General	773	697	₦558m	₦558m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	704	398	₦72.7m	₦72.7m	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	261	220	₦1.33bn	₦1.3bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	19	9	₦2.25m	₦2.25m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	5	3	₦1.87m	₦1.87m	55%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	42,134	4,746	₦436m	₦436m	7%	15.1 yr
50 100m2	19,642	2,962	₦2.59bn	₦2.51bn	29%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	18,113	2,320	₦531m	₦531m	11%	8.9 yr
100 250m2	5,041	1,251	₦3.5bn	₦3.38bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	523	236	₦1.89bn	₦1.86bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	18	13	₦891m	₦891m	69%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	31,590	5,796	₦4.5bn	₦4.46bn	11%	8.4 yr
Rural	23,253	3,132	₦2.09bn	₦2.02bn	11%	9.1 yr
Unclassified	17,070	881	₦2.07bn	₦1.95bn	7%	15.1 yr
Dense Urban	13,558	1,719	₦1.19bn	₦1.19bn	19%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	46,663	5,189	₦472m	₦472m	7%	14.4 yr
Residential Small	21,029	3,520	₦2.78bn	₦2.7bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	9,607	1,257	₦4.46bn	₦4.34bn	21%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	5,287	0	₦21.9m	₦21.9m	5%	9.6 yr
Residential Informal	1,113	235	₦137m	₦137m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	704	398	₦72.7m	₦72.7m	51%	2.1 yr
Market	422	418	₦48.6m	₦48.6m	63%	1.6 yr
Institutional	147	121	₦653m	₦653m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial	131	83	₦88.5m	₦88.5m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	89	79	₦170m	₦170m	91%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	74	73	₦180m	₦180m	53%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	59	47	₦592m	₦566m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	85,466	11,526	₦9.83bn	₦9.61bn
Farmland	5	2	₦481k	₦481k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	85,002	11,149	₦8.23bn	₦8.03bn	11%	9.1 yr
Enterprise	265	223	₦1.33bn	₦1.31bn	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	204	156	₦269m	₦269m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	46,674	5,196	₦472m	₦472m
2.0	17,099	2,622	₦2.7bn	₦2.58bn
3.0	9,560	2,208	₦5.72bn	₦5.61bn
1.0	7,647	1,395	₦674m	₦674m
4.0	4,491	107	₦275m	₦275m